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A primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-11-20 Kevin H. Knuth , Anthony Gotera , Charles T. Curry , Karen A. Huyser , Kevin R. Wheeler , William B. Rossow

The goal of causal mediation analysis, often described within the potential outcomes framework, is to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome of interest along different causal pathways. Using the assumption of sequential…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Lexi Rene , Antonio R. Linero , Elizabeth Slate

Many empirical studies estimate causal effects in environments where economic units interact through spatial or network connections. In such settings, outcomes are jointly determined, and treatment induced shocks propagate across…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-05 Mariluz Mate

Detecting and measuring confounding effects from data is a key challenge in causal inference. Existing methods frequently assume causal sufficiency, disregarding the presence of unobserved confounding variables. Causal sufficiency is both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy , Vineeth N Balasubramanian

The notion of causality assumes a paramount position within the realm of human cognition. Over the past few decades, there has been significant advancement in the domain of causal effect estimation across various disciplines, including but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Zongyu Li , Xiaobo Guo , Siwei Qiang

An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-15 K. C. G. Chan , K. Imai , S. C. P. Yam , Z. Zhang

Mediation analysis seeks to infer how much of the effect of an exposure on an outcome can be attributed to specific pathways via intermediate variables or mediators. This requires identification of so-called path-specific effects. These…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-06 Johan Steen , Stijn Vansteelandt

Transfer entropy is used to establish a measure of causal relationships between two variables. Symbolic transfer entropy, as an estimation method for transfer entropy, is widely applied due to its robustness against non-stationarity. This…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Dian Jin

Ensuring safe operation of safety-critical complex systems interacting with their environment poses significant challenges, particularly when the system's world model relies on machine learning algorithms to process the perception input. A…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Roman Gansch , Lina Putze , Tjark Koopmann , Jan Reich , Christian Neurohr

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences,…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-05 Lionel Barnett , Terry Bossomaier

We propose the Fourier-domain transfer entropy spectrum, a novel generalization of transfer entropy, as a model-free metric of causality. For arbitrary systems, this approach systematically quantifies the causality among their different…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-10-14 Yang Tian , Yaoyuan Wang , Ziyang Zhang , Pei Sun

Causal influence measures for machine learnt classifiers shed light on the reasons behind classification, and aid in identifying influential input features and revealing their biases. However, such analyses involve evaluating the classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-10 Shayak Sen , Piotr Mardziel , Anupam Datta , Matthew Fredrikson

Information transfer is an essential factor in determining the robustness of collective behaviour in biological systems with distributed control. The most direct way to study the information transfer mechanisms is to experimentally detect…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-12-21 Andrea Cavagna , Daniele Conti , Irene Giardina , Tomas S. Grigera , Stefania Melillo , Massimiliano Viale

Contagion processes on networks, including disease spreading, information diffusion, or social behaviors propagation, can be modeled as simple contagion, i.e. involving one connection at a time, or as complex contagion, in which multiple…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-06-19 Giulia Cencetti , Diego Andrés Contreras , Marco Mancastroppa , Alain Barrat

The inference of causal relationships using observational data from partially observed multivariate systems with hidden variables is a fundamental question in many scientific domains. Methods extracting causal information from conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Daniel Chicharro , Michel Besserve , Stefano Panzeri

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Ola Ahmad , Nicolas Bereux , Loïc Baret , Vahid Hashemi , Freddy Lecue

Novel vehicular communication methods are mostly analyzed simulatively or analytically as real world performance tests are highly time-consuming and cost-intense. Moreover, the high number of uncontrollable effects makes it practically…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2019-11-22 Benjamin Sliwa , Christian Wietfeld

The direct effect of one eventon another can be defined and measured byholding constant all intermediate variables between the two.Indirect effects present conceptual andpractical difficulties (in nonlinear models), because they cannot be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Judea Pearl

This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Brian Gilbert , Ivan Dıaz , Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Tat-Thang Vo

The rate of adoption of new information depends on reinforcement from multiple sources in a way that often cannot be described by simple contagion processes. In such cases, contagion is said to be complex. Complex contagion happens in the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-06-21 Vítor V. Vasconcelos , Simon A. Levin , Flávio L. Pinheiro