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In this paper, we analyze a large class of general nonlinear state-space models on a state-space X, defined by the recursion $\phi_{k+1} = F(\phi_k,\alpha(\phi_k,U_{k+1}))$, $k \in\mathbb N$, where $F,\alpha$ are some functions and…
A stable-like Markov chain is a time-homogeneous Markov chain on the real line with the transition kernel $p(x,dy)=f_x(y-x)dy$, where the density functions $f_x(y)$, for large $|y|$, have a power-law decay with exponent $\alpha(x)+1$, where…
For a class of irreducible Markov chains with an infinitely countable set of states, we establish a new verifiable necessary and sufficient condition for recurrence and transience. We show that if one of the basic assumptions is not…
Consider a parametric statistical model $P(\mathrm{d}x|\theta)$ and an improper prior distribution $\nu(\mathrm{d}\theta)$ that together yield a (proper) formal posterior distribution $Q(\mathrm{d}\theta|x)$. The prior is called strongly…
We consider the recurrence and transience problem for a time-homogeneous Markov chain on the real line with transition kernel $p(x,\mathrm{d}y)=f_x(y-x)\,\mathrm{d}y$, where the density functions $f_x(y)$, for large $|y|$, have a power-law…
Consider a Markov process $\{\Phi(t) : t\geq 0\}$ evolving on a Polish space ${\sf X}$. A version of the $f$-Norm Ergodic Theorem is obtained: Suppose that the process is $\psi$-irreducible and aperiodic. For a given function $f\colon{\sf…
We give recurrence and transience criteria for two cases of time-homogeneous Markov chains on the real line with transition kernel $p(x,dy)=f_x(y-x)dy$, where $f_x(y)$ are probability densities of symmetric distributions and, for large…
We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this…
We study the stability of a Markovian model of electricity production and consumption that incorporates production volatility due to renewables and uncertainty about actual demand versus planned production. We assume that the energy…
The goal of this paper is to develop a general method to establish conditional ergodicity of infinite-dimensional Markov chains. Given a Markov chain in a product space, we aim to understand the ergodic properties of its conditional…
We consider a family of Markov chains whose transition dynamics are affected by model parameters. Understanding the parametric dependence of (complex) performance measures of such Markov chains is often of significant interest. The…
Motivated by techniques developed in recent progress on lower bounds for sublinear time algorithms (Behnezhad, Roghani and Rubinstein, STOC 2023, FOCS 2023, and STOC 2024) we introduce and study a new class of randomized algorithmic…
A sequence of real numbers (x_n) is Benford if the significands, i.e. the fraction parts in the floating-point representation of (x_n) are distributed logarithmically. Similarly, a discrete-time irreducible and aperiodic finite-state Markov…
Given an infinitesimal perturbation of a discrete-time finite Markov chain, we seek the states that are stable despite the perturbation, \textit{i.e.} the states whose weights in the stationary distributions can be bounded away from $0$ as…
We propose a simple criterion, inspired from the irreducible aperiodic Markov chains, to derive the exponential convergence of general positive semi-groups. When not checkable on the whole state space, it can be combined to the use of…
We analyze a stochastic process resulting from the normalization of states in the zeroth-order optimization method CMA-ES. On a specific class of minimization problems where the objective function is scaling-invariant, this process defines…
We consider a family of measure preserving transformations, which act on a common probability space and are chosen at random by a stationary ergodic Markov chain. This setting defines an instance of a random dynamical system (RDS), which…
We introduce the concept of asymptotic period for an irreducible and aperiodic, discrete-time Markov chain X on a countable state space, and develop the theory leading to its formal definition. The asymptotic period of X equals one - its…
It is known that state-dependent, multi-step Lyapunov bounds lead to greatly simplified verification theorems for stability for large classes of Markov chain models. This is one component of the "fluid model" approach to stability of…
Mostof the existing literature on supervised machine learning problems focuses on the case when the training data set is drawn from an i.i.d. sample. However, many practical problems are characterized by temporal dependence and strong…