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We consider the problem of change-point detection in multivariate time-series. The multivariate distribution of the observations is supposed to follow a graphical model, whose graph and parameters are affected by abrupt changes throughout…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-20 Loïc Schwaller , Stéphane Robin

A new Bayesian modelling framework is introduced for piece-wise homogeneous variable-memory Markov chains, along with a collection of effective algorithmic tools for change-point detection and segmentation of discrete time series. Building…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Valentinian Lungu , Ioannis Papageorgiou , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

Predicting cancer dynamics under treatment is challenging due to high inter-patient heterogeneity, lack of predictive biomarkers, and sparse and noisy longitudinal data. Mathematical models can summarize cancer dynamics by a few…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-05-24 Even Moa Myklebust , Arnoldo Frigessi , Fredrik Schjesvold , Jasmine Foo , Kevin Leder , Alvaro Köhn-Luque

Changes in the statistical properties of a stochastic process are typically assumed to occur via change-points, which demark instantaneous moments of complete and total change in process behavior. In cases where these transitions occur…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-06 Chris Browne

Bayesian change-point detection, together with latent variable models, allows to perform segmentation over high-dimensional time-series. We assume that change-points lie on a lower-dimensional manifold where we aim to infer subsets of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Lorena Romero-Medrano , Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez

The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Olivier Sorba , C Geissler

Identifying macroeconomic events that are responsible for dramatic changes of economy is of particular relevance to understand the overall economic dynamics. We introduce an open-source available efficient Python implementation of a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-03 Martin Heßler , Tobias Wand , Oliver Kamps

We present a novel Bayesian approach to analysing multiple time-series with the aim of detecting abnormal regions. These are regions where the properties of the data change from some normal or baseline behaviour. We allow for the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-08-17 Lawrence Bardwell , Paul Fearnhead

Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Saku Suorsa , Aki Vehtari

Changepoint models typically assume the data within each segment are independent and identically distributed conditional on some parameters which change across segments. This construction may be inadequate when data are subject to local…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-10 Karl L. Hallgren , Nicholas A. Heard , Niall M. Adams

This paper addresses the issue of detecting change-points in multivariate time series. The proposed approach differs from existing counterparts by making only weak assumptions on both the change-points structure across series, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-14 Flore Harlé , Florent Chatelain , Cédric Gouy-Pailler , Sophie Achard

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-27 David Gunawan , Robert Kohn , David Nott

Joinpoint regression is used to determine the number of segments needed to adequately explain the relationship between two variables. This methodology can be widely applied to real problems, but we focus on epidemiological data, the main…

Applications · Statistics 2011-12-08 Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito , Gonzalo García-Donato , Diego Salmerón

Popular statistical software provides Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for multilevel models or linear mixed models. However, it has been observed that the combination of statistical literature and software documentation has led to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-24 Sun-Joo Cho , Hao Wu , Matthew Naveiras

Imaging in clinical oncology trials provides a wealth of information that contributes to the drug development process, especially in early phase studies. This paper focuses on kinetic modeling in DCE-MRI, inspired by mixed-effects models…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-22 Volker J. Schmid , Brandon Whitcher , Anwar R. Padhani , N. Jane Taylor , Guang-Zhong Yang

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Davis Berlind , Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

This work delves into presenting a probabilistic method for analyzing linear process data with weakly dependent innovations, focusing on detecting change-points in the mean and estimating its spectral density. We develop a test for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Ramkrishna Jyoti Samanta

Understanding how stochastic gene expression is regulated in biological systems using snapshots of single-cell transcripts requires state-of-the-art methods of computational analysis and statistical inference. A Bayesian approach to…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-12-10 Yen Ting Lin , Nicolas E. Buchler

The emergence and development of cancer is a consequence of the accumulation over time of genomic mutations involving a specific set of genes, which provides the cancer clones with a functional selective advantage. In this work, we model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-10 Daniele Ramazzotti , Marco S. Nobile , Paolo Cazzaniga , Giancarlo Mauri , Marco Antoniotti

A method based on wavelet transform and genetic programming is proposed for characterizing and modeling variations at multiple scales in non-stationary time series. The cyclic variations, extracted by wavelets and smoothened by cubic…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-12-02 Dilip P. Ahalpara , Amit Verma , Prasanta K. Panigrahi , Jitendra C. Parikh