Related papers: A variational approach to path estimation and para…
In this article we consider likelihood-based estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov (POMV) diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, using the…
The analysis of diffusion processes in real-world propagation scenarios often involves estimating variables that are not directly observed. These hidden variables include parental relationships, the strengths of connections between nodes,…
This paper provides a semiparametric model of estimating states of the volatility defined as the squared diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. Without assuming any functional form of the volatility function, we…
For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and…
Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are, however, difficult to characterize. Here, we…
Parameter inference for stochastic differential equations is challenging due to the presence of a latent diffusion process. Working with an Euler-Maruyama discretisation for the diffusion, we use variational inference to jointly learn the…
We introduce a new variational characterization of Gaussian diffusion processes as minimum uncertainty states. We then define a variational method constrained by kinematics of diffusions and Schr\"{o}dinger dynamics to seek states of local…
Hidden Markov models have successfully been applied as models of discrete time series in many fields. Often, when applied in practice, the parameters of these models have to be estimated. The currently predominating identification methods,…
A hidden Markov process is a well known concept in information theory and is used for a vast range of applications such as speech recognition and error correction. We bridge between two disciplines, experimental physics and advanced…
Sampling from the posterior is a key technical problem in Bayesian statistics. Rigorous guarantees are difficult to obtain for Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms of common use. In this paper, we study an alternative class of algorithms…
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting.…
Bayesian inference for nonlinear diffusions, observed at discrete times, is a challenging task that has prompted the development of a number of algorithms, mainly within the computational statistics community. We propose a new direction,…
For a one dimensional diffusion process $X=\{X(t) ; 0\leq t \leq T \}$, we suppose that $X(t)$ is hidden if it is below some fixed and known threshold $\tau$, but otherwise it is visible. This means a partially hidden diffusion process. The…
We consider the problem of learning two families of time-evolving random measures from indirect observations. In the first model, the signal is a Fleming--Viot diffusion, which is reversible with respect to the law of a Dirichlet process,…
We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…
Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…
This paper considers parameter estimation for nonlinear state-space models, which is an important but challenging problem. We address this challenge by employing a variational inference (VI) approach, which is a principled method that has…
Hidden Markov models provide a natural statistical framework for the detection of the copy number variations (CNV) in genomics. In this paper, we consider a Hidden Markov Model involving several correlated hidden processes at the same time.…