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Stochastic process models are now commonly used to analyse complex biological, ecological and industrial systems. Increasingly there is a need to deliver accurate estimates of model parameters and assess model fit by optimizing the timing…
An efficient algorithm is proposed for Bayesian model calibration, which is commonly used to estimate the model parameters of non-linear, computationally expensive models using measurement data. The approach is based on Bayesian statistics:…
We consider the fundamental problem of estimating a discrete distribution on a domain of size $K$ with high probability in Kullback-Leibler divergence. We provide upper and lower bounds on the minimax estimation rate, which show that the…
We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method…
The problem of sequentially maximizing the expectation of a function seeks to maximize the expected value of a function of interest without having direct control on its features. Instead, the distribution of such features depends on a given…
In this paper, we study the strong consistency of a bias reduced kernel density estimator and derive a strongly con- sistent Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) estimator. As application, we formulate a goodness-of-fit test and an…
The study of robustness has received much attention due to its inevitability in data-driven settings where many systems face uncertainty. One such example of concern is Bayesian Optimization (BO), where uncertainty is multi-faceted, yet…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) are trained to optimize an entire distribution over their weights instead of a single set, having significant advantages in terms of, e.g., interpretability, multi-task learning, and calibration. Because of…
This paper provides a detailed investigation of using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence as a way to compare and analyse game-levels, and hence to use the measure as the objective function of an evolutionary algorithm to evolve new…
In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) model in which the ambiguity set is defined as the set of distributions whose Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to an empirical distribution is bounded. Utilizing the…
The problem of predicting independent Poisson random variables is commonly encountered in real-life practice. Simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables are investigated, and the performance of predictive…
We develop a new computational approach for "focused" optimal Bayesian experimental design with nonlinear models, with the goal of maximizing expected information gain in targeted subsets of model parameters. Our approach considers…
The performance of machine learning classification algorithms are evaluated by estimating metrics, often from the confusion matrix, using training data and cross-validation. However, these do not prove that the best possible performance has…
We develop a novel method for carrying out model selection for Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) by means of prior hyper-parameter optimization. Inspired by the common practice of type-II maximum likelihood optimization and its equivalence to…
We study the problem of model selection type aggregation with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence for various probabilistic models. Rather than considering a convex combination of the initial estimators $f_1, \ldots, f_N$, our…
We propose an information criterion for multistep ahead predictions. It is also used for extrapolations. For the derivation, we consider multistep ahead predictions under local misspecification. In the prediction, we show that Bayesian…
Machine learning algorithms may have disparate impacts on protected groups. To address this, we develop methods for Bayes-optimal fair classification, aiming to minimize classification error subject to given group fairness constraints. We…
Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is a fundamental concept in information theory that quantifies the discrepancy between two probability distributions. In the context of Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), it serves as a central regularization…
User preference learning is generally a hard problem. Individual preferences are typically unknown even to users themselves, while the space of choices is infinite. Here we study user preference learning from information-theoretic…
We consider the problem of computing optimal experimental design on a finite design space with respect to a compound Bayes risk criterion, which includes the linear criterion for prediction in a random coefficient regression model. We show…