Related papers: Robust estimation and inference for heavy tailed G…
This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the…
This paper develops a large-scale inference approach for the regularization of stock return covariance matrices. The framework allows for the presence of heavy tails and multivariate GARCH-type effects of unknown form among the stock…
Machine-learning (ML) methods now routinely generate regressors used in subsequent econometric analyses, for example, estimated propensity scores, control-function residuals, imputed covariates, learned proxies, or low-dimensional…
In this paper we consider the semi-parametric estimation of extreme quantiles of a right heavy-tail model. We propose a new Log Probability Weighted Moment estimator for extreme quantiles, which is obtained from the estimators of the shape…
A notoriously difficult challenge in extreme value theory is the choice of the number $k\ll n$, where $n$ is the total sample size, of extreme data points to consider for inference of tail quantities. Existing theoretical guarantees for…
The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…
Several novel statistical methods have been developed to estimate large integrated volatility matrices based on high-frequency financial data. To investigate their asymptotic behaviors, they require a sub-Gaussian or finite high-order…
We study scalable alternatives to robust gradient descent (RGD) techniques that can be used when the losses and/or gradients can be heavy-tailed, though this will be unknown to the learner. The core technique is simple: instead of trying to…
The composite quantile regression (CQR) was introduced by Zou and Yuan [Ann. Statist. 36 (2008) 1108--1126] as a robust regression method for linear models with heavy-tailed errors while achieving high efficiency. Its penalized counterpart…
Finite sample properties of random covariance-type matrices have been the subject of much research. In this paper we focus on the "lower tail" of such a matrix, and prove that it is subgaussian under a simple fourth moment assumption on the…
This paper develops a Bayesian framework for the realized exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (realized EGARCH) model, which can incorporate multiple realized volatility measures for the modelling of a…
We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail…
Determining the number of factors in high-dimensional factor modeling is essential but challenging, especially when the data are heavy-tailed. In this paper, we introduce a new estimator based on the spectral properties of Spearman sample…
Robust and sparse estimation of linear regression coefficients is investigated. The situation addressed by the present paper is that covariates and noises are sampled from heavy-tailed distributions, and the covariates and noises are…
The subject of robust estimation in time series is widely discussed in literature. One of the approaches is to use GM-estimation. This method incorporates a broad class of nonparametric estimators which under suitable conditions includes…
We propose a new Bayesian strategy for adaptation to smoothness in nonparametric models based on heavy tailed series priors. We illustrate it in a variety of settings, showing in particular that the corresponding Bayesian posterior…
In this paper, we propose self-tuned robust estimators for estimating the mean of heavy-tailed distributions, which refer to distributions with only finite variances. Our approach introduces a new loss function that considers both the mean…
We investigate the time-varying ARCH (tvARCH) process. It is shown that it can be used to describe the slow decay of the sample autocorrelations of the squared returns often observed in financial time series, which warrants the further…
We construct efficient robust truncated sequential estimators for the pointwise estimation problem in nonparametric autoregression models with smooth coefficients. For Gaussian models we propose an adaptive procedure based on the…
We propose a new finite sample corrected variance estimator for the linear generalized method of moments (GMM) including the one-step, two-step, and iterated estimators. Our formula additionally corrects for the over-identification bias in…