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The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g. regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-20 Skyler J. Cranmer , Bruce A. Desmarais

Predictive models are one of the most important techniques that are widely applied in many areas of software engineering. There have been a large number of primary studies that apply predictive models and that present well-preformed studies…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2020-08-11 Yanming Yang , Xin Xia , David Lo , Tingting Bi , John Grundy , Xiaohu Yang

Probabilistic programming makes it easy to represent a probabilistic model as a program. Building an individual model, however, is only one step of probabilistic modeling. The broader challenge of probabilistic modeling is in understanding…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2022-08-15 Ryan Bernstein

Transformers have revolutionized machine learning across diverse domains, yet understanding their behavior remains crucial, particularly in high-stakes applications. This paper introduces the contextual counting task, a novel toy problem…

Imputing missing values is an important preprocessing step in data analysis, but the literature offers little guidance on how to choose between different imputation models. This letter suggests adopting the imputation model that generates a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-13 Moritz Marbach

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Anna Sokol , Nuno Moniz , Nitesh Chawla

Topic modelling is a text mining technique for identifying salient themes from a number of documents. The output is commonly a set of topics consisting of isolated tokens that often co-occur in such documents. Manual effort is often…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-26 Lowri Williams , Eirini Anthi , Laura Arman , Pete Burnap

Given a CNF formula F on n variables, the problem of model counting or #SAT is to compute the number of satisfying assignments of F . Model counting is a fundamental but hard problem in computer science with varied applications. Recent…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-05-01 Kuldeep S. Meel , S. Akshay

We consider basic conceptual questions concerning the relationship between statistical estimation and causal inference. Firstly, we show how to translate causal inference problems into an abstract statistical formalism without requiring any…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-22 Oliver J. Maclaren , Ruanui Nicholson

Propositional model counting, or #SAT, is the problem of computing the number of satisfying assignments of a Boolean formula. Many problems from different application areas, including many discrete probabilistic inference problems, can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-12 Pashootan Vaezipoor , Gil Lederman , Yuhuai Wu , Chris J. Maddison , Roger Grosse , Sanjit A. Seshia , Fahiem Bacchus

We consider the problem of producing fair probabilistic classifiers for multi-class classification tasks. We formulate this problem in terms of "projecting" a pre-trained (and potentially unfair) classifier onto the set of models that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Wael Alghamdi , Hsiang Hsu , Haewon Jeong , Hao Wang , P. Winston Michalak , Shahab Asoodeh , Flavio P. Calmon

Given a classification model and a prediction for some input, there are heuristic strategies for ranking features according to their importance in regard to the prediction. One common approach to this task is rooted in propositional logic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Tomás Capdevielle , Santiago Cifuentes

Every prediction is ultimately used in a downstream task. Consequently, evaluating prediction quality is more meaningful when considered in the context of its downstream use. Metrics based solely on predictive performance often diverge from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Novin Shahroudi , Viacheslav Komisarenko , Meelis Kull

We study the problem of modeling and inference for spatio-temporal count processes. Our approach uses parsimonious parameterisations of multivariate autoregressive count time series models, including possible regression on covariates. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Steffen Maletz , Konstantinos Fokianos , Roland Fried

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-25 Fabrizio Leisen , Cristiano Villa , Stephen G. Walker

Probabilistic programs provide an expressive representation language for generative models. Given a probabilistic program, we are interested in the task of posterior inference: estimating a latent variable given a set of observed variables.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-01 Mike Wu , Noah Goodman

Compared with constraint satisfaction problems, counting problems have received less attention. In this paper, we survey research works on the problems of counting the number of solutions to constraints. The constraints may take various…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Jian Zhang , Cunjing Ge , Feifei Ma

The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-31 Dustin Tran , Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Susan Athey , David M. Blei

Existing works on visual counting primarily focus on one specific category at a time, such as people, animals, and cells. In this paper, we are interested in counting everything, that is to count objects from any category given only a few…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-04-20 Viresh Ranjan , Udbhav Sharma , Thu Nguyen , Minh Hoai

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Jamelle Watson-Daniels , David C. Parkes , Berk Ustun