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Statistical inference on the mean of a Poisson distribution is a fundamentally important problem with modern applications in, e.g., particle physics. The discreteness of the Poisson distribution makes this problem surprisingly challenging,…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-03 Ryan Martin , Duncan Ermini Leaf , Chuanhai Liu

Fitting probabilistic models to data is often difficult, due to the general intractability of the partition function and its derivatives. Here we propose a new parameter estimation technique that does not require computing an intractable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Jascha Sohl-Dickstein , Peter Battaglino , Michael R. DeWeese

This paper considers nonlinear dynamic models where the main parameter of interest is a nonnegative matrix characterizing the network (contagion) effects. This network matrix is usually constrained either by assuming a limited number of…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-23 Christian Gourieroux , Joann Jasiak

In this paper we propose a procedure for robust estimation in the context of generalized linear models based on the maximum Lq-likelihood method. Alongside this, an estimation algorithm that represents a natural extension of the usual…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-09 Felipe Osorio , Manuel Galea , Patricia Gimenez

Indirect inference estimators (i.e., simulation-based minimum distance estimators) in a parametric model that are based on auxiliary non-parametric maximum likelihood density estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal. If the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-01-24 Florian Gach , Benedikt M. Pötscher

Two-phase designs measure variables of interest on a subcohort where the outcome and covariates are readily available or cheap to collect on all individuals in the cohort. Given limited resource availability, it is of interest to find an…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Tong Chen , Thomas Lumley

Distributed learning of probabilistic models from multiple data repositories with minimum communication is increasingly important. We study a simple communication-efficient learning framework that first calculates the local maximum…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-13 Qiang Liu , Alexander Ihler

A novel framework is introduced to formalize identifiability in well-specified but ill-posed linear regression models. The framework is distribution-free and accommodates highly correlated features that may or may not relate to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Gianluca Finocchio , Tatyana Krivobokova

This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-14 Karun Adusumilli

This paper discusses the problem of determining optimal designs for regression models, when the observations are dependent and taken on an interval. A complete solution of this challenging optimal design problem is given for a broad class…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-25 Holger Dette , Andrey Pepelyshev , Anatoly Zhigljavsky

This paper deals with the problem of estimating predictive densities of a matrix-variate normal distribution with known covariance matrix. Our main aim is to establish some Bayesian predictive densities related to matricial shrinkage…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-03 Hisayuki Tsukuma , Tatsuya Kubokawa

In this paper we study algorithms to find a Gaussian approximation to a target measure defined on a Hilbert space of functions; the target measure itself is defined via its density with respect to a reference Gaussian measure. We employ the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-08-11 Frank J. Pinski , Gideon Simpson , Andrew M. Stuart , Hendrik Weber

The paper treats the financial market as a communication system, using four information-theoretic assumptions to derive an idealized model with only one parameter. State variables are scalar stationary diffusions. The model minimizes the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-17 Eckhard Platen

We propose the generalised Fisher information or the one-parameter extended class of the Fisher information for the case of one random variable. This new form of the Fisher information is obtained from the intriguing connection between the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-25 Worachet Bukaew , Sikarin Yoo-Kong

In system identification, estimating parameters of a model using limited observations results in poor identifiability. To cope with this issue, we propose a new method to simultaneously select and estimate sensitive parameters as key model…

We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Shouhao Zhou

We construct optimal low-rank approximations for the Gaussian posterior distribution in linear Gaussian inverse problems with possibly infinite-dimensional separable Hilbert parameter spaces and finite-dimensional data spaces. We first…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-09 Giuseppe Carere , Han Cheng Lie

This paper is a strongly geometrical approach to the Fisher distance, which is a measure of dissimilarity between two probability distribution functions. The Fisher distance, as well as other divergence measures, are also used in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-13 Sueli I. R. Costa , Sandra A. Santos , João E. Strapasson

Statistical evaluation aims to estimate the generalization performance of a model using held-out i.i.d.\ test data sampled from the ground-truth distribution. In supervised learning settings such as classification, performance metrics such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Shashaank Aiyer , Yishay Mansour , Shay Moran , Han Shao

We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-09 Alexandre Belloni , Abhishek Kaul , Mathieu Rosenbaum