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Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are rare but destructive hazards in high mountain regions, yet predictive research is hindered by fragmented and unimodal data. Most prior efforts emphasize post-event mapping, whereas forecasting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Zuha Fatima , Muhammad Anser Sohaib , Muhammad Talha , Sidra Sultana , Ayesha Kanwal , Nazia Perwaiz

Improving statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is limited by complex nonlinear interactions and difficulty in identifying relevant predictors. Conventional methods prioritize correlation or fit, often overlooking…

The Ensemble Kalman filter assumes the observations to be Gaussian random variables with a pre-specified mean and variance. In practice, observations may also have detection limits, for instance when a gauge has a minimum or maximum value.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-11-14 Abhishek Shah , Mohamad El Gharamti , Laurent Bertino

Chaos is ubiquitous in physical systems. The associated sensitivity to initial conditions is a significant obstacle in forecasting the weather and other geophysical fluid flows. Data assimilation is the process whereby the uncertainty in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-11-03 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Jonathan Demaeyer , Colin Grudzien , Patrick Raanes , Stephane Vannitsem

Lightning plays a crucial role in the Earth's climate system, yet existing parameterizations for use in forecasting and earth system models show room for improvement in capturing spatial and temporal variations in its frequency. This study…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-15 Randall Jones , Joel A. Thornton , Chris J. Wright , Robert Holzworth

Though free-floating planets (FFPs) may outpopulate their bound counterparts in the terrestrial-mass range, they remain one of the least explored exoplanet demographics. Due to their negligible electromagnetic emission at all wavelengths,…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-14 Michelle Kunimoto , William DeRocco , Nolan Smyth , Steve Bryson , B. Scott Gaudi

In large lakes, ice cover plays an important role in shipping and navigation, coastal erosion, regional weather and climate, and aquatic ecosystem function. In this study, a novel deep learning model for ice cover concentration prediction…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-09 Hazem Abdelhady , Cary Troy

Localizing and counting large ungulates -- hoofed mammals like cows and elk -- in very high-resolution satellite imagery is an important task for supporting ecological studies. Prior work has shown that this is feasible with deep learning…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-06-30 Caleb Robinson , Anthony Ortiz , Lacey Hughey , Jared A. Stabach , Juan M. Lavista Ferres

There is mounting empirical evidence that many communities of living organisms display key features which closely resemble those of physical systems at criticality. We here introduce a minimal model framework for the dynamics of a community…

Biological Physics · Physics 2020-02-17 Fabio Peruzzo , Mauro Mobilia , Sandro Azaele

Computer vision can accelerate ecological research and conservation monitoring, yet adoption in ecology lags in part because of a lack of trust in black-box neural-network-based models. We seek to address this challenge by applying post-hoc…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Jiayi Zhou , Günel Aghakishiyeva , Saagar Arya , Julian Dale , James David Poling , Holly R. Houliston , Jamie N. Womble , Gregory D. Larsen , David W. Johnston , Brinnae Bent

The aquaculture industry is constantly making efforts to improve fish welfare while maintaining the ethically sustainable farming practises. This work presents an enhanced tank environment designed for testing and developing novel…

Disaster prediction is one of the most critical tasks towards disaster surveillance and preparedness. Existing technologies employ different machine learning approaches to predict incoming disasters from historical environmental data.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-08-12 Hamada M. Zahera , Mohamed Ahmed Sherif , Axel Ngonga

Relative abundance, measured as the number of animals caught per unit of sampling effort (CPUE), is commonly used to monitor fish and wildlife populations, largely because sampling methods are cost-effective to implement. Modeling relative…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-12 Kevin M. Collins , Erin M. Schliep , Tyler Wagner , Christopher K. Wikle

Concerns regarding the impacts of climate change on marginalised communities in the Global South have led to calls for affected communities to be more active as agents in the process of planning for climate change. While the value of…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Erich Wolff , Matthew French , Noor Ilhamsyah , Mere Jane Sawailau , Diego Ramirez-Lovering

"Social sensing" is a form of crowd-sourcing that involves systematic analysis of digital communications to detect real-world events. Here we consider the use of social sensing for observing natural hazards. In particular, we present a case…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2018-07-04 Rudy Arthur , Chris A. Boulton , Humphrey Shotton , Hywel T. P. Williams

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) is the prediction of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on the 2-week to 2-month time horizon. Skillful SSF would have substantial societal value in areas such as agricultural…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-12 Sijie He , Xinyan Li , Laurie Trenary , Benjamin A Cash , Timothy DelSole , Arindam Banerjee

Climate change poses significant challenges for accurate climate modeling due to the complexity and variability of non-Gaussian climate systems. To address the complexities of non-Gaussian systems in climate modeling, this thesis proposes a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-28 Yunjin Tong

A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-06 Justin Finkel , Paul A. O'Gorman

We consider the problem of conditioning a geological process-based computer simulation, which produces basin models by simulating transport and deposition of sediments, to data. Emphasising uncertainty quantification, we frame this as a…

Applications · Statistics 2017-11-22 Jacob Skauvold , Jo Eidsvik

Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is of strong interest in climate modeling because of its role in both severe weather and in model construction. Extreme levels of CAPE ($>$ 2000 J/kg) are associated with high-impact weather…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-27 Ziwei Wang , James A. Franke , Zhenqi Luo , Elisabeth J. Moyer
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