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In solving simulation-based stochastic root-finding or optimization problems that involve rare events, such as in extreme quantile estimation, running crude Monte Carlo can be prohibitively inefficient. To address this issue, importance…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-23 Shengyi He , Guangxin Jiang , Henry Lam , Michael C. Fu

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-04 Willem van den Boom , Andrea Cremaschi , Alexandre H. Thiery

We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-08 Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , Jan Palczewski , Wojciech Rejchel

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 James Cuin , Davide Carbone , Yanbo Tang , O. Deniz Akyildiz

Improving efficiency of importance sampler is at the center of research in Monte Carlo methods. While adaptive approach is usually difficult within the Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, the counterpart in importance sampling can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-12-11 Heng Lian

Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander

Monte Carlo methods are widely used importance sampling techniques for studying complex physical systems. Integrating these methods with deep learning has significantly improved efficiency and accuracy in high-dimensional problems and…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-12-24 Yixiong Ren , Jianhui Zhou

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Anas Cherradi , Yazid Janati , Alain Durmus , Sylvain Le Corff , Yohan Petetin , Julien Stoehr

Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-13 Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling methods are powerful tools for approximating distributions of static unknowns given a set of observations. These methods are iterative in nature: at each step they generate samples from a proposal…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-17 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are recent variance reduction techniques. In this work, we propose a mathematical setting which greatly relaxes the assumptions needed by for the adaptive importance sampling techniques presented by Vazquez-Abad…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-04-28 Bernard Lapeyre , Jérôme Lelong

We show that the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator that is importance sampled from an exponential family is a convex function of the natural parameter of the distribution. With this insight, we propose an adaptive importance sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-12 Ernest K. Ryu , Stephen P. Boyd

Science and engineering problems subject to uncertainty are frequently both computationally expensive and feature nonsmooth parameter dependence, making standard Monte Carlo too slow, and excluding efficient use of accelerated uncertainty…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Per Pettersson , Sebastian Krumscheid

Importance sampling has become an indispensable strategy to speed up optimization algorithms for large-scale applications. Improved adaptive variants - using importance values defined by the complete gradient information which changes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-08 Sebastian U. Stich , Anant Raj , Martin Jaggi

This paper addresses the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions. In particular, we have considered a recently proposed technique known as population Monte Carlo (PMC), which is based on an iterative…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-03 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquín Míguez

In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Robert Millar , Jinglai Li , Hui Li

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of Monte Carlo methods that are used to obtain random samples of a high dimensional random variable in a sequential fashion. Many problems encountered in applications often involve different…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-20 Chencheng Cai , Rong Chen , Ming Lin

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-05 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Ajay Jasra

We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Carsten Hartmann
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