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We give lower bounds on the performance of two of the most popular sampling methods in practice, the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and multi-step Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) with a leapfrog integrator, when applied to…

Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…

We consider a recently proposed class of MCMC methods which uses proximity maps instead of gradients to build proposal mechanisms which can be employed for both differentiable and non-differentiable targets. These methods have been shown to…

In this paper we propose to evaluate and compare Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate the parameters in a generalized extreme value model. We employed the Bayesian approach using traditional Metropolis-Hastings methods,…

The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…

We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…

While the Metropolis Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) is a popular and widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo method, very few papers derive conditions that ensure its convergence. In particular, to the authors' knowledge, assumptions that…

Several studies explore inferences based on stochastic volatility (SV) models, taking into account the stylized facts of return data. The common problem is that the latent parameters of many volatility models are high-dimensional and…

In plasmas, distribution functions often demonstrate long anisotropic tails or otherwise significant deviations from local Maxwellians. The tails, especially if they are pulled out from the bulk, pose a serious challenge for numerical…

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…

Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew…

This article proposes a novel Bayesian multivariate quantile regression to forecast the tail behavior of energy commodities, where the homoskedasticity assumption is relaxed to allow for time-varying volatility. In particular, we exploit…

This paper aims to more effectively manage and mitigate stock market risks by accurately characterizing financial market returns and volatility. We enhance the Stochastic Volatility (SV) model by incorporating fat-tailed distributions and…

We analyse computational efficiency of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms with stochastic AR(1) process proposals. These proposals include, as a subclass, discretized Langevin diffusion (e.g. MALA) and discretized Hamiltonian dynamics (e.g.…

Stochastic approximation methods play a central role in maximum likelihood estimation problems involving intractable likelihood functions, such as marginal likelihoods arising in problems with missing or incomplete data, and in parametric…

This paper introduces the multivariate tail-inflated normal (MTIN) distribution, an elliptical heavy-tails generalization of the multivariate normal (MN). The MTIN belongs to the family of MN scale mixtures by choosing a convenient…

We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational…

We consider the problem of sampling from a strongly log-concave density in $\mathbb{R}^d$, and prove a non-asymptotic upper bound on the mixing time of the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA). The method draws samples by…

A stochastic Machine-Learning approach is developed for data-driven Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) predictions of turbulent flows, with quantified model uncertainty. This is done by combining a Bayesian symbolic identification…

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are popular likelihood-based generative models which can be efficiently trained by maximizing an Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). There has been much progress in improving the expressiveness of the variational…