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It is well understood that Bayesian decision theory and average case analysis are essentially identical. However, if one is interested in performing uncertainty quantification for a numerical task, it can be argued that standard approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-16 Chris. J. Oates , Jon Cockayne , Dennis Prangle , T. J. Sullivan , Mark Girolami

Markov Decision Problems (MDPs) provide a foundational framework for modelling sequential decision-making across diverse domains, guided by optimality criteria such as discounted and average rewards. However, these criteria have inherent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Dibyangshu Mukherjee , Shivaram Kalyanakrishnan

In the theory of dynamic programming, an optimal policy is a policy whose lifetime value dominates that of all other policies from every possible initial condition in the state space. This raises a natural question: when does optimality…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-13 John Stachurski , Jingni Yang , Ziyue Yang

Recently, it has been shown how sampling actions from the predictive distribution over the optimal action-sometimes called Thompson sampling-can be applied to solve sequential adaptive control problems, when the optimal policy is known for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-09-24 Pedro A. Ortega , Daniel A. Braun

This paper studies the approximation of optimal control policies by quantized (discretized) policies for a very general class of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The problem is motivated by applications in networked control systems,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-05-14 Naci Saldi , Serdar Yüksel , Tamás Linder

Recently proposed models which learn to write computer programs from data use either input/output examples or rich execution traces. Instead, we argue that a novel alternative is to use a glass-box loss function, given as a program itself…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-27 Konstantina Christakopoulou , Adam Tauman Kalai

We consider a settings of hierarchical reinforcement learning, in which the reward is a sum of components. For each component we are given a policy that maximizes it and our goal is to assemble a policy from the individual policies that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-06 Tom Zahavy , Avinatan Hasidim , Haim Kaplan , Yishay Mansour

It is becoming increasingly apparent that probabilistic approaches can overcome conservatism and computational complexity of the classical worst-case deterministic framework and may lead to designs that are actually safer. In this paper we…

Applications · Statistics 2008-11-01 Xinjia Chen , Kemin Zhou , Jorge L. Aravena

Considering voting rules based on evaluation inputs rather than preference rankings modifies the paradigm of probabilistic studies of voting procedures. This article proposes several simulation models for generating evaluation-based voting…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-18 Antoine Rolland , Jean-Baptiste Aubin , Irène Gannaz , Samuela Leoni

A user-focused verification approach for evaluating probability forecasts of binary outcomes (also known as probabilistic classifiers) is demonstrated that is (i) based on proper scoring rules, (ii) focuses on user decision thresholds, and…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-25 Nicholas Loveday , Robert Taggart , Mohammadreza Khanarmuei

The field of statistical relational learning aims at unifying logic and probability to reason and learn from data. Perhaps the most successful paradigm in the field is probabilistic logic programming: the enabling of stochastic primitives…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-20 Stefanie Speichert , Vaishak Belle

We introduce a novel class of algorithms to efficiently approximate the unknown return distributions in policy evaluation problems from distributional reinforcement learning (DRL). The proposed distributional dynamic programming algorithms…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-22 Julian Gerstenberg , Ralph Neininger , Denis Spiegel

This paper proposes Partially Observable Reference Policy Programming, a novel anytime online approximate POMDP solver which samples meaningful future histories very deeply while simultaneously forcing a gradual policy update. We provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Edward Kim , Hanna Kurniawati

We study the problem of Trajectory Optimization (TO) for a general class of stiff and constrained dynamic systems. We establish a set of mild assumptions, under which we show that TO converges numerically stably to a locally optimal and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-25 Zherong Pan , Yifan Zhu

Many web systems rank and present a list of items to users, from recommender systems to search and advertising. An important problem in practice is to evaluate new ranking policies offline and optimize them before they are deployed. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-15 Shuai Li , Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Branislav Kveton , S. Muthukrishnan , Vishwa Vinay , Zheng Wen

Probabilistic programs provide an expressive representation language for generative models. Given a probabilistic program, we are interested in the task of posterior inference: estimating a latent variable given a set of observed variables.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-01 Mike Wu , Noah Goodman

We consider the problem of computing the maximal invariant set of discrete-time black-box nonlinear systems without analytic dynamical models. Under the assumption that the system is asymptotically stable, the maximal invariant set…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-31 Zheming Wang , Raphaël M. Jungers

Simulation based or dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methodologies were primarily developed for proving a more realistic and complete representation of complex systems accident response. Such simulation based methodologies have proven…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-30 Parhizkar Tarannom , Mosleh Ali

Agent programming is mostly a symbolic discipline and, as such, draws little benefits from probabilistic areas as machine learning and graphical models. However, the greatest objective of agent research is the achievement of autonomy in…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Francisco Coelho , Vitor Nogueira

Software systems are complex, and behavioral comprehension with the increasing amount of AI components challenges traditional testing and maintenance strategies.The lack of tools and methodologies for behavioral software comprehension…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2019-12-19 Hannes Thaller , Lukas Linsbauer , Rudolf Ramler , Alexander Egyed