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A fundamental challenge for any intelligent system is prediction: given some inputs, can you predict corresponding outcomes? Most work on supervised learning has focused on producing accurate marginal predictions for each input. However, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-25 Zheng Wen , Ian Osband , Chao Qin , Xiuyuan Lu , Morteza Ibrahimi , Vikranth Dwaracherla , Mohammad Asghari , Benjamin Van Roy

In this paper,we consider the restless bandit problem, which is one of the most well-studied generalizations of the celebrated stochastic multi-armed bandit problem in decision theory. However, it is known be PSPACE-Hard to approximate to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-04-29 Quan Liu , Kehao Wang , Lin Chen

Almost every software system provides configuration options to tailor the system to the target platform and application scenario. Often, this configurability renders the analysis of every individual system configuration infeasible. To…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2016-02-17 Flávio Medeiros , Christian Kästner , Márcio Ribeiro , Rohit Gheyi , Sven Apel

We model the joint distribution of choice probabilities and decision times in binary choice tasks as the solution to a problem of optimal sequential sampling, where the agent is uncertain of the utility of each action and pays a constant…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-14 Drew Fudenberg , Philipp Strack , Tomasz Strzalecki

This research considers the ranking and selection (R&S) problem of selecting the optimal subset from a finite set of alternative designs. Given the total simulation budget constraint, we aim to maximize the probability of correctly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-25 Fei Gao , Zhongshun Shi , Siyang Gao , Hui Xiao

We consider the problem of hypothesis testing for discrete distributions. In the standard model, where we have sample access to an underlying distribution $p$, extensive research has established optimal bounds for uniformity testing,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Maryam Aliakbarpour , Piotr Indyk , Ronitt Rubinfeld , Sandeep Silwal

We address the problem of multi-group mean estimation, which seeks to allocate a finite sampling budget across multiple groups to obtain uniformly accurate estimates of their means. Unlike classical multi-armed bandits, whose objective is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Ziyi Wei , Huaiyang Zhong , Xiaocheng Li

We introduce and study a new class of stochastic bandit problems, referred to as predictive bandits. In each round, the decision maker first decides whether to gather information about the rewards of particular arms (so that their rewards…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-03 Simon Lindståhl , Alexandre Proutiere , Andreas Johnsson

The multi-armed bandit problem is a core framework for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but classical algorithms often fail in environments with hidden, time-varying states that confound reward estimation and optimal action…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Jikai Jin , Kenneth Hung , Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy , Baoyi Shi , Congshan Zhang

Many of the recent triumphs in machine learning are dependent on well-tuned hyperparameters. This is particularly prominent in reinforcement learning (RL) where a small change in the configuration can lead to failure. Despite the importance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Jack Parker-Holder , Vu Nguyen , Stephen Roberts

The ranking and selection problem is a popular framework in the simulation literature for studying optimal information collection. We study a version of this problem in which the simulation output for each design is normally distributed…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Jianzhong Du , Ilya O. Ryzhov , Siyang Gao

We study model selection in linear bandits, where the learner must adapt to the dimension (denoted by $d_\star$) of the smallest hypothesis class containing the true linear model while balancing exploration and exploitation. Previous papers…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-17 Yinglun Zhu , Robert Nowak

Multi-armed bandits (MAB) model sequential decision making problems, in which a learner sequentially chooses arms with unknown reward distributions in order to maximize its cumulative reward. Most of the prior work on MAB assumes that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-22 Onur Atan , Cem Tekin , Mihaela van der Schaar

For traffic routing platforms, the choice of which route to recommend to a user depends on the congestion on these routes -- indeed, an individual's utility depends on the number of people using the recommended route at that instance.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Pranjal Awasthi , Kush Bhatia , Sreenivas Gollapudi , Kostas Kollias

Time-constrained decision processes have been ubiquitous in many fundamental applications in physics, biology and computer science. Recently, restart strategies have gained significant attention for boosting the efficiency of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-02 Semih Cayci , Atilla Eryilmaz , R. Srikant

We give nearly-tight upper and lower bounds for the improving multi-armed bandits problem. An instance of this problem has $k$ arms, each of whose reward function is a concave and increasing function of the number of times that arm has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Avrim Blum , Kavya Ravichandran

We consider a sequential assortment selection problem where the user choice is given by a multinomial logit (MNL) choice model whose parameters are unknown. In each period, the learning agent observes a $d$-dimensional contextual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-26 Min-hwan Oh , Garud Iyengar

In contrast to the advances in characterizing the sample complexity for solving Markov decision processes (MDPs), the optimal statistical complexity for solving constrained MDPs (CMDPs) remains unknown. We resolve this question by providing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Sharan Vaswani , Lin F. Yang , Csaba Szepesvári

We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) in which the transition probabilities and rewards belong to an uncertainty set parametrized by a collection of random variables. The probability distributions for these random parameters are…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2020-02-26 Murat Cubuktepe , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Ufuk Topcu

The sample mean is among the most well studied estimators in statistics, having many desirable properties such as unbiasedness and consistency. However, when analyzing data collected using a multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiment, the sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-03 Jaehyeok Shin , Aaditya Ramdas , Alessandro Rinaldo