Related papers: Solomonoff Induction Violates Nicod's Criterion
Evaluating LLM forecasting capabilities is constrained by a fundamental tension: prospective evaluation offers methodological rigor but prohibitive latency, while retrospective forecasting (RF) -- evaluating on already-resolved events --…
A cyclic proof system, called CLKID-omega, gives us another way of representing inductive definitions and efficient proof search. The 2005 paper by Brotherston showed that the provability of CLKID-omega includes the provability of LKID,…
I consider the puzzles arising from four interrelated problems involving `anthropic' reasoning, and in particular the `Self-Sampling Assumption' (SSA) - that one should reason as if one were randomly chosen from the set of all observers in…
We fix $d \geq 2$ and denote $\mathcal S$ the semi-group of $d \times d$ matrices with non negative entries. We consider a sequence $(A_n, B_n)_{n \geq 1} $ of i. i. d. random variables with values in $\mathcal S\times \mathbb R_+^d$ and…
We prove a fundamental impossibility theorem: neural networks cannot simultaneously learn well-calibrated confidence estimates with meaningful diversity when trained using binary correct/incorrect supervision. Through rigorous mathematical…
We study the problem of strongly refuting semirandom $k$-LIN$(\mathbb{F})$ instances: systems of $k$-sparse inhomogeneous linear equations over a finite field $\mathbb{F}$. For the case of $\mathbb{F} = \mathbb{F}_2$, this is the…
In the subject paper [1] of the comment [2], light propagation through an absolute gravimeter was analyzed, including the propagation delay through the falling retroreflector and through the vacuum. The resulting expression for the…
Opacity is a generic security property, that has been defined on (non probabilistic) transition systems and later on Markov chains with labels. For a secret predicate, given as a subset of runs, and a function describing the view of an…
Glivenko's theorem says that, in propositional logic, classical provability of a formula entails intuitionistic provability of double negation of that formula. We generalise Glivenko's theorem from double negation to an arbitrary nucleus,…
The Boolean satisfiability problem (SAT) is a well-known example of monotonic reasoning, of intense practical interest due to fast solvers, complemented by rigorous fine-grained complexity results. However, for non-monotonic reasoning,…
We consider a linear skew product with the full shift in the base and nonzero Lyapunov exponent in the fiber. We provide a sharp estimate for the precision of shadowing for a typical pseudotrajectory of finite length. This result indicates…
The aim of this chapter is twofold. First, we introduce the information loss problem; second, we provide a critical assessment by thoroughly inspecting the assumptions underlying its formulations. In particular, we argue that if we work in…
Learned classifiers should often possess certain invariance properties meant to encourage fairness, robustness, or out-of-distribution generalization. However, multiple recent works empirically demonstrate that common invariance-inducing…
This article focuses on the technique of postponing the application of the reduction ad absurdum rule (raa) in classical natural deduction. First, it is shown how this technique is connected with two normalization strategies for classical…
We establish the weak large deviations principle for empirical measures of Markov chains on $\mathbb R^d$ under mild assumptions. In particular, no irreducibility is assumed and the initial measure may be arbitrary. The proof is entirely…
Abduction is a fundamental and important form of non-monotonic reasoning. Given a knowledge base explaining how the world behaves it aims at finding an explanation for some observed manifestation. In this paper we focus on propositional…
In 2002 Robert Solovay proved that a subsystem BI of classical second order arithmetic, with bar induction and arithmetical countable choice, can be negatively interpreted in the neutral subsystem BSK of Kleene's intuitionistic analysis FIM…
We consider a class of symmetry hypothesis testing problems including testing isotropy on $\mathbb{R}^d$ and testing rotational symmetry on the hypersphere $\mathcal{S}^{d-1}$. For this class, we study the null and non-null behaviors of…
We pursue our investigations, initiated in [8], about stochastic integration with respect to the non-commutative fractional Brownian motion (NC-fBm). Our main objective in this paper is to compare the pathwise constructions of [8] with a…
This paper's first aim is to prove a modernized Occam's razor beyond a reasonable doubt. To summarize the main argument in one sentence: If we consider all possible, intelligible, scientific models of ever-higher complexity, democratically,…