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We propose a dynamic multiplicative factor model for process data, which arise from complex problem-solving items, an emerging testing mode in large-scale educational assessment. The proposed model can be viewed as an extension of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-26 Fangyi Chen , Hok Kan Ling , Zhiliang Ying

In this paper, we propose a novel factor-augmented forecasting regression model with a binary response variable. We develop a maximum likelihood estimation method for the regression parameters and establish the asymptotic properties of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-23 Tingting Cheng , Jiachen Cong , Fei Liu , Xuanbin Yang

Rigorous guarantees about the performance of predictive algorithms are necessary in order to ensure their responsible use. Previous work has largely focused on bounding the expected loss of a predictor, but this is not sufficient in many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Jake C. Snell , Thomas P. Zollo , Zhun Deng , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

Quantile regression is a powerful statistical methodology that complements the classical linear regression by examining how covariates influence the location, scale, and shape of the entire response distribution and offering a global view…

Applications · Statistics 2013-09-11 Lu Xiaoming , Fan Zhaozhi

Income and risk coexist, yet investors are often so focused on chasing high returns that they overlook the potential risks that can lead to high losses. Therefore, risk forecasting and risk control is the cornerstone of investment. To…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-14 Xinyuan Song

Qualitative numerical planning is classical planning extended with non-negative real variables that can be increased or decreased "qualitatively", i.e., by positive indeterminate amounts. While deterministic planning with numerical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-30 Blai Bonet , Hector Geffner

Estimating the structures at high or low quantiles has become an important subject and attracted increasing attention across numerous fields. However, due to data sparsity at tails, it usually is a challenging task to obtain reliable…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-08 Yingying Zhang , Yuefeng Si , Guodong Li , Chil-Ling Tsai

We study the problem of designing minimax procedures in linear regression under the quantile risk. We start by considering the realizable setting with independent Gaussian noise, where for any given noise level and distribution of inputs,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-19 Ayoub El Hanchi , Chris J. Maddison , Murat A. Erdogdu

The increased availability of massive data sets provides a unique opportunity to discover subtle patterns in their distributions, but also imposes overwhelming computational challenges. To fully utilize the information contained in big…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-12 Stanislav Volgushev , Shih-Kang Chao , Guang Cheng

Quantile regression is a technique to estimate conditional quantile curves. It provides a comprehensive picture of a response contingent on explanatory variables. In a flexible modeling framework, a specific form of the conditional quantile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-08-31 Vladimir Spokoiny , Weining Wang , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

A framework is presented for fitting inverse problem models via variational Bayes approximations. This methodology guarantees flexibility to statistical model specification for a broad range of applications, good accuracy and reduced model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-05 Luca Maestrini , Robert G. Aykroyd , Matt P. Wand

In the present paper we investigate the predictive risk of possibly misspecified quantile regression functions. The in-sample risk is well-known to be an overly optimistic estimate of the predictive risk and we provide two relatively simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Alexander Giessing , Xuming He

The function-on-function linear regression model in which the response and predictors consist of random curves has become a general framework to investigate the relationship between the functional response and functional predictors.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-03 Ufuk Beyaztas , Han Lin Shang

It is well known that quantile regression model minimizes the portfolio extreme risk, whenever the attention is placed on the estimation of the response variable left quantiles. We show that, by considering the entire conditional…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-02 Giovanni Bonaccolto , Massimiliano Caporin , Sandra Paterlini

Semiparametric models are often considered for analyzing longitudinal data for a good balance between flexibility and parsimony. In this paper, we study a class of marginal partially linear quantile models with possibly varying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-19 Huixia Judy Wang , Zhongyi Zhu , Jianhui Zhou

We study the problem of modeling univariate distributions via their quantile functions. We introduce a flexible family of distributions whose quantile function is a linear combination of basis quantiles. Because the model is linear in its…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Cheng Peng , Yizhou Li , Stan Uryasev

We propose an approach to multivariate nonparametric regression that generalizes reduced rank regression for linear models. An additive model is estimated for each dimension of a $q$-dimensional response, with a shared $p$-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-01-10 Rina Foygel , Michael Horrell , Mathias Drton , John Lafferty

We consider the problem of estimating the expected outcomes of Monte Carlo processes whose outputs are described by multidimensional random variables. We tightly characterize the quantum query complexity of this problem for various choices…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-07-09 Arjan Cornelissen , Sofiene Jerbi

Monte Carlo sampling is a powerful toolbox of algorithmic techniques widely used for a number of applications wherein some noisy quantity, or summary statistic thereof, is sought to be estimated. In this paper, we survey the literature for…

It is known that the common factors in a large panel of data can be consistently estimated by the method of principal components, and principal components can be constructed by iterative least squares regressions. Replacing least squares…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-16 Jushan Bai , Serena Ng