Related papers: A Nonanticipative Analog Method for Long-Term Fore…
Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…
We compare probabilistic predictions of extreme temperature anomalies issued by two different forecast schemes. One is a dynamical physical weather model, the other a simple data model. We recall the concept of skill scores in order to…
Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
Accurate modeling of daily rainfall, encompassing both dry and wet days as well as extreme precipitation events, is critical for robust hydrological and climatological analyses. This study proposes a zero-inflated extended generalized…
This paper addresses the critical environmental challenge of estimating ambient Nitrogen Dioxide (NO$_2$) concentrations, a key issue in public health and environmental policy. Existing methods for satellite-based air pollution estimation…
An estimate of the net direction of climate interactions in different geographical regions is made by constructing a directed climate network from a regular latitude-longitude grid of nodes, using a directionality index (DI) based on…
Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…
Short-term forecasting is an important tool in understanding environmental processes. In this paper, we incorporate machine learning algorithms into a conditional distribution estimator for the purposes of forecasting tropical cyclone…
There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…
We present a regime-switching vector-autoregressive method for very-short-term wind speed forecasting at multiple locations with regimes based on large-scale meteorological phenomena. Statistical methods short-term wind forecasting…
Physics-based atmosphere-land models with prescribed sea surface temperature have notable successes but also biases in their ability to represent atmospheric variability compared to observations. Recently, AI emulators and hybrid models…
Modeling extremes of climate variables in the framework of climate change is a particularly difficult task, since it implies taking into account spatio-temporal nonstationarities. In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating…
Planetary and synoptic scale wave-packets represent one important component of the atmospheric large-scale circulation. These dissipative structures are able to rapidly transport eddy kinetic energy, generated locally (e.g. by baroclinic…
Currently, the issue that concerns the world leaders most is climate change for its effect on agriculture, environment and economies of daily life. So, to combat this, temperature prediction with strong accuracy is vital. So far, the most…
A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived…
Aircraft trajectory prediction requires the determination of the atmospheric properties (pressure, temperature, and density) encountered by the aircraft during its flight. This is accomplished by employing a tabulated prediction published…
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…
Analogs are nearest neighbors of the state of a system. By using analogs and their successors in time, one is able to produce empirical forecasts. Several analog forecasting methods have been used in atmospheric applications and tested on…
Weather forecasts are typically given in the form of forecast ensembles obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with varying initial conditions and physics parameterizations. Such ensemble predictions tend to be…