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Generating high quality uncertainty estimates for sequential regression, particularly deep recurrent networks, remains a challenging and open problem. Existing approaches often make restrictive assumptions (such as stationarity) yet still…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-26 Jiri Navratil , Matthew Arnold , Benjamin Elder

Nonstationarity is a major challenge in analyzing spatial data. For example, daily precipitation measurements may have increased variability and decreased spatial smoothness in areas with high mean rainfall. Common nonstationary covariance…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-31 Geoffrey Colin Lee Peterson , Joseph Guinness , Adam Terando , Brian J. Reich

On a global level, ecological communities are being perturbed at an unprecedented rate by human activities and environmental instabilities. Yet, we understand little about what factors facilitate or impede long-term persistence of these…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-24 Johannes Nauta , Manlio De Domenico

As a result of extreme weather conditions, such as heavy precipitation, natural hillslopes can fail dramatically; these slope failures can occur on a dry day due to time lags between rainfall and pore-water pressure change at depth, or even…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2023-07-19 Vrinda Desai , Farnaz Fazelpour , Alexander L. Handwerger , Karen E. Daniels

In this work, we present and analyze a general framework for vegetation dynamics in arid and semi-arid ecosystems in which non-local interactions are purely competitive. The generality of the formulation enables a systematic search for…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2026-04-21 Jelle van der Voort , Ricardo Martinez-Garcia , Arjen Doelman

We numerically investigate a diffusion-reaction model of an ombrotrophic peatland implementing a Turing instability relying on nutrient accumulation. We propose a systematic and quantitative sorting of the vegetation patterns, based on the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2019-02-08 Chloé Béguin , Maura Brunetti , Jérôme Kasparian

The theory of alternative stable states and tipping points has garnered substantial attention in the last several decades. It predicts potential critical transitions from one ecosystem state to a completely different state under increasing…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2024-09-11 Swarnendu Banerjee , Mara Baudena , Paul Carter , Robbin Bastiaansen , Arjen Doelman , Max Rietkerk

In this paper we consider the 2-component reaction-diffusion model that was recently obtained by a systematic reduction of the 3-component Gilad et al. model for dryland ecosystem dynamics. The nonlinear structure of this model is more…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Olfa Jaibi , Arjen Doelman , Martina Chirilus-Bruckner , Ehud Meron

Crop yield is affected by various soil and environmental parameters and can vary significantly. Therefore, a crop yield estimation model which can predict pre-harvest yield is required for food security. The study is conducted on tea forms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Nisar Ahmed , Hafiz Muhammad Shahzad Asif , Gulshan Saleem , Muhammad Usman Younus

Originating from the pioneering study of Alan Turing, the bifurcation analysis predicting spatial pattern formation from a spatially uniform state for diffusing morphogens or chemical species that interact through nonlinear reactions is a…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2023-01-18 Merlin Pelz , Michael J. Ward

This contribution provides a strategy for studying and modelling the deforestation and soil deterioration in the natural forest reserve of Peten, Guatemala, using a poor spatial database. A Multispectral Image Processing of Spot and TM…

Applications · Statistics 2009-04-03 Roberto Bruno , Marco Follador , Martin Paegelow , Fernanda Renno , Nathalie Villa

How ecosystems respond to environmental perturbations is a fundamental question in ecology, made especially challenging due to the strong coupling between species and their environment. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework for…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-11-25 Akshit Goyal , Jason W. Rocks , Pankaj Mehta

Scaling laws in ecology, intended both as functional relationships among ecologically-relevant quantities and the probability distributions that characterize their occurrence, have long attracted the interest of empiricists and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-10-19 Silvia Zaoli , Andrea Giometto , Amos Maritan , Andrea Rinaldo

Understanding how vegetation loss alters rainfall remains a major challenge in climate and hydrological science, as deforestation modifies precipitation through heterogeneous, seasonal and nonlinear land-atmosphere feedbacks. Existing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-13 Lilly Horvath-Makkos , Fayyaz Minhas

Ecological networks describe the interactions between different species, informing us of how they rely on one another for food, pollination and survival. If a species in an ecosystem is under threat of extinction, it can affect other…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-06 Chris Jones , Damaris Zurell , Karoline Wiesner

We conduct a large empirical evaluation to investigate the landscape of distributional robustness in question answering. Our investigation spans over 350 models and 16 question answering datasets, including a diverse set of architectures,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Anas Awadalla , Mitchell Wortsman , Gabriel Ilharco , Sewon Min , Ian Magnusson , Hannaneh Hajishirzi , Ludwig Schmidt

Drought is a global threat caused by the persistent challenges of climate change. It is important to identify drought conditions based on the weather variables and their patterns. In this study, we enhanced the Standardized Precipitation…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-22 Sachini Karunarathne , Kushani De Silva , Sanjeewa Perera

We study a mathematical model inspired by a common scenario in northern Patagonia consisting of humans and their livestock living together with native wildlife. The main production system in this area is sheep farming, which due to wrong…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-02-01 Y. C. Daza C. , M. F. Laguna , J. A. Monjeau , G. Abramson

Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-19 Yang Liu , Philip Kokic

We study a model ecosystem by means of dynamical techniques from disordered systems theory. The model describes a set of species subject to competitive interactions through a background of resources, which they feed upon. Additionally…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-13 Yoshimi Yoshino , Tobias Galla , Kei Tokita