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Related papers: Hawkes Processes

200 papers

A field theoretical framework is developed for the Hawkes self-excited point process with arbitrary memory kernels by embedding the original non-Markovian one-dimensional dynamics onto a Markovian infinite-dimensional one. The corresponding…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-08 Alexander Kreiss , Enno Mammen , Wolfgang Polonik

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-04 Farnood Salehi , William Trouleau , Matthias Grossglauser , Patrick Thiran

The paper discusses multivariate self- and cross-exciting processes. We define a class of multivariate point processes via their corresponding stochastic intensity processes that are driven by stochastic jumps. Essentially, there is a jump…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-24 Heidar Eyjolfsson , Dag Tjøstheim

A multivariate Hawkes process enables self- and cross-excitations through a triggering matrix that behaves like an asymmetrical covariance structure, characterizing pairwise interactions between the event types. Full-rank estimation of all…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-26 Myrl G. Marmarelis , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan

We investigate the long-run behavior of single-server queues with Hawkes arrivals and general service distributions and related optimization problems. In detail, utilizing novel coupling techniques, we establish finite moment bounds for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-14 Xinyun Chen , Guiyu Hong

Most point process models for earthquakes currently in the literature assume the magnitude distribution is i.i.d. potentially hindering the ability of the model to describe the main features of data sets containing multiple earthquake…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-13 Louis Davis , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

In this paper we consider multivariate Hawkes processes with baseline hazard and kernel functions that depend on time. This defines a class of locally stationary processes. We discuss estimation of the time-dependent baseline hazard and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-17 Enno Mammen

We introduce the Hawkes process with renewal immigration and make its statistical estimation possible with two Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithms. The standard Hawkes process introduces immigrant points via a Poisson process, and each…

Applications · Statistics 2014-07-29 Spencer Wheatley , Vladimir Filimonov , Didier Sornette

The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-20 Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan , Feng Chen , William Dunsmuir

Hawkes process are very popular mathematical tools for modelling phenomena exhibiting a \textit{self-exciting} or \textit{self-correcting} behaviour. Typical examples are earthquakes occurrence, wild-fires, drought, capture-recapture, crime…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-23 Francesco Serafini , Finn Lindgren , Mark Naylor

Stochastic processes are proposed whose master equations coincide with classical wave, telegraph, and Klein-Gordon equations. Similar to predecessors based on the Goldstein-Kac telegraph process, the model describes the motion of particles…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-18 A. V. Plyukhin

In this paper we provide an expansion formula for Hawkes processes which involves the addition of jumps at deterministic times to the Hawkes process in the spirit of the well-known integration by parts formula (or more precisely the Mecke…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Caroline Hillairet , Anthony Reveillac , Mathieu Rosenbaum

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

We present a stability study of the class of multivariate self-excited Hawkes point processes, that can model natural and social systems, including earthquakes, epileptic seizures and the dynamics of neuron assemblies, bursts of exchanges…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-27 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

In this work we introduce two variants of multivariate Hawkes models with an explicit dependency on various queue sizes aimed at modeling the stochastic time evolution of a limit order book. The models we propose thus integrate the…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-28 Peng Wu , Marcello Rambaldi , Jean-François Muzy , Emmanuel Bacry

This paper introduces the Hawkes skeleton and the Hawkes graph. These objects summarize the branching structure of a multivariate Hawkes point process in a compact, yet meaningful way. We demonstrate how graph-theoretic vocabulary…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-14 Paul Embrechts , Matthias Kirchner

We aim to explicitly model the delayed Granger causal effects based on multivariate Hawkes processes. The idea is inspired by the fact that a causal event usually takes some time to exert an effect. Studying this time lag itself is of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-14 Chao Yang , Hengyuan Miao , Shuang Li

Stochastic HYPE is a novel process algebra that models stochastic, instantaneous and continuous behaviour. It develops the flow-based approach of the hybrid process algebra HYPE by replacing non-urgent events with events with…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-11-18 Luca Bortolussi , Vashti Galpin , Jane Hillston

Dynamic jumps in the price and volatility of an asset are modelled using a joint Hawkes process in conjunction with a bivariate jump diffusion. A state space representation is used to link observed returns, plus nonparametric measures of…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-10 Worapree Maneesoonthorn , Catherine S. Forbes , Gael M. Martin