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Related papers: Hawkes Processes

200 papers

In this paper we study the number of customers in infinite-server queues with a self-exciting (Hawkes) arrival process. Initially we assume that service requirements are exponentially distributed and that the Hawkes arrival process is of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-02 David Koops , Mayank Saxena , Onno Boxma , Michel Mandjes

Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Renbo Zhao , Niccolò Dalmasso , Mohsen Ghassemi , Vamsi K. Potluru , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso

The event sequence of many diverse systems is represented as a sequence of discrete events in a continuous space. Examples of such an event sequence are earthquake aftershock events, financial transactions, e-commerce transactions, social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Jayesh Malaviya

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Gordon J. Ross , Dean Markwick

Existence and stability properties are studied for Hawkes process, i.e. point process $S$ that has long-memory and intensity $r(t)=\lambda \big(g_0(t)+ \sum_{\tau<t, \tau \in S} h(t-\tau) \big)$. The approach to Hawkes process presented in…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-17 Dmytro Karabash

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-24 Alex Ziyu Jiang , Abel Rodríguez

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Minju Jo , Seungji Kook , Noseong Park

We analyze the probability density function (PDF) of waiting times between financial loss exceedances. The empirical PDFs are fitted with the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process with a long power law memory kernel. The Hawkes…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-24 Maciej Jagielski , Ryszard Kutner , Didier Sornette

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Sacha Quayle , Anna Bonnet , Maxime Sangnier

Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as…

We consider hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) for a dynamic description of the traffic behavior in road networks. These equations are coupled to a Hawkes process that models traffic accidents taking into account their…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Simone Göttlich , Thomas Schillinger

A univariate Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process is given by the sum of a baseline intensity and another term that depends on the entire past history…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-04 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Maya Sadeler-Perrin

Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Negar Erfanian , Santiago Segarra , Maarten de Hoop

Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

Quadratic Hawkes (QHawkes) processes have proved effective at reproducing the statistics of price changes, capturing many of the stylised facts of financial markets. Motivated by the recently reported strong occurrence of endogenous…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-15 Cécilia Aubrun , Michael Benzaquen , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Lingjiong Zhu

We present a Hawkes model approach to foreign exchange market in which the high frequency price dynamics is affected by a self exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-19 Marcello Rambaldi , Paris Pennesi , Fabrizio Lillo

Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-13 Santhosh Narayanan , Carsten Maple , Mark Hooper