Related papers: Modeling asymptotically independent spatial extrem…
We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…
Peaks-over-threshold analysis using the generalized Pareto distribution is widely applied in modelling tails of univariate random variables, but much information may be lost when complex extreme events are studied using univariate results.…
We consider the clustering of extremes for stationary regularly varying random fields over arbitrary growing index sets. We study sufficient assumptions on the index set such that the limit of the point random fields of the exceedances…
This paper investigates pooling strategies for tail index and extreme quantile estimation from heavy-tailed data. To fully exploit the information contained in several samples, we present general weighted pooled Hill estimators of the tail…
The risk of occurrence of atypical phenomena is a cross-cutting concern in several areas, such as engineering, climatology, finance, actuarial, among others. Extreme value theory is the natural tool to approach this theme. Many of these…
Tail dependence refers to clustering of extreme events. In the context of financial risk management, the clustering of high-severity risks has a devastating effect on the well-being of firms and is thus of pivotal importance in risk…
Quantifying uncertainty in future climate projections is hindered by the prohibitive computational cost of running physical climate models, which severely limits the availability of training data. We propose a data-efficient framework for…
Concentration inequalities form an essential toolkit in the study of high dimensional (HD) statistical methods. Most of the relevant statistics literature in this regard is based on sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential tail assumptions. In this…
In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of the Gaussian quasi maximum likelihood estimator of a stationary GARCH process with heavy-tailed innovations. This means that the innovations are regularly varying with index…
A geometric representation for multivariate extremes, based on the shapes of scaled sample clouds in light-tailed margins and their so-called limit sets, has recently been shown to connect several existing extremal dependence concepts.…
Let $\{X(t),t\ge0\}$ be a centered Gaussian process and let $\gamma$ be a non-negative constant. In this paper we study the asymptotics of $P\{\underset{t\in [0,\mathcal{T}/u^\gamma]}\sup X(t)>u\}$ as $u\to\infty$, with $\mathcal{T}$ an…
This work is devoted to a vast extension of Sanov's theorem, in Laplace principle form, based on alternatives to the classical convex dual pair of relative entropy and cumulant generating functional. The abstract results give rise to a…
Let $\mathbf{X}(n) \in \mathbb{R}^d$ be a sequence of random vectors, where $n\in\mathbb{N}$ and $d = d(n)$. Under certain weakly dependence conditions, we prove that the distribution of the maximal component of $\mathbf{X}$ and the…
A major challenge in state estimation with model-based observers are low-quality models that lack of relevant dynamics. We address this issue by simultaneously estimating the system's states and its model uncertainties by a square root UKF.…
A variety of estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution, the approximating distribution for excesses over a high threshold, have been proposed, always assuming the underlying data to be independent. We recently…
The task for a general and useful classification of the tail behaviors of probability distributions still has no satisfactory solution. Due to lack of information outside the range of the data the tails of the distribution should be…
The skew-normal and related families are flexible and asymmetric parametric models suitable for modelling a diverse range of systems. We show that the multivariate maximum of a high-dimensional extended skew-normal random sample has…
Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…
The article studies non-Gaussian extensions of a recently discovered link between certain Gaussian random fields, expressed as solutions to stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), and Gaussian Markov random fields. The focus is…
We study the tail behavior of the distribution of the sum of asymptotically independent risks whose marginal distributions belong to the maximal domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution. We impose conditions on the distribution of…