Related papers: Modeling asymptotically independent spatial extrem…
We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…
The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method is the most popular statistical method for the analysis of univariate extremes. Even though there is a rich applied literature on Bayesian inference for the POT, the asymptotic theory for such proposals…
The tail process $\boldsymbol{Y}=(Y_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ of a stationary regularly varying random field $\boldsymbol{X}=(X_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ represents the asymptotic local…
Flexible random scale-mixture models provide a framework for capturing a broad range of extremal dependence structures. However, likelihood-based inference under the peaks-over-threshold setting is often computationally infeasible, due to…
We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…
We introduce the extremal range, a local statistic for studying the spatial extent of extreme events in random fields on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Conditioned on exceedance of a high threshold at a location $s$, the extremal range at $s$ is the…
This contribution establishes exact tail asymptotics of $\sup_{(s,t)\in\mathbf{E}}$ $X(s,t)$ for a large class of nonhomogeneous Gaussian random fields $X$ on a bounded convex set $\mathbf{E}\subset\mathbb{R}^2$, with variance function that…
We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace…
Models for extreme values are generally derived from limit results, which are meant to be good enough approximations when applied to finite samples. Depending on the speed of convergence of the process underlying the data, these…
We derive exact asymptotics of $$\mathbb{P}\left(\sup_{\mathbf{t}\in {\mathcal{A}}}X(\mathbf{t})>u\right),~ \text{as}~ u\to\infty,$$ for a centered Gaussian field $X(\mathbf{t}),~ \mathbf{t}\in \mathcal{A}\subset\mathbb{R}^n$, $n>1$ with…
The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…
The possibilities of the use of the coefficient of variation over a high threshold in tail modelling are discussed. The paper also considers multiple threshold tests for a generalized Pareto distribution, together with a threshold selection…
The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…
This paper introduces a class of copula models for spatial data, based on multivariate Pareto-mixture distributions. We explore the tail properties of these models, demonstrating their ability to capture both tail dependence and asymptotic…
We establish sharp tail asymptotics for component-wise extreme values of bivariate Gaussian random vectors with arbitrary correlation between the components. We consider two scaling regimes for the tail event in which we demonstrate the…
In this paper, we derive tail approximations of integrals of exponential functions of Gaussian random fields with varying mean functions and approximations of the associated point processes. This study is motivated naturally by multiple…
Exponential, and not Gaussian, decay of probability density functions was studied by Laplace in the context of his analysis of errors. Such Laplace propagators for the diffusive motion of single particles in disordered media were recently…
This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…
This article studies tail behavior for the error components in the stochastic frontier model, where one component has bounded support on one side, and the other has unbounded support on both sides. Under weak assumptions on the error…
The problem of sums of independent, identically distributed random variables with stretched-exponential tails exhibits a dynamical phase transition and has recently reemerged in the context of active transport and condensation phenomena. We…