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In this paper, we develop a new change detection algorithm for detecting a change in the Markov kernel over a metric space in which the post-change kernel is unknown. Under the assumption that the pre- and post-change Markov kernel is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-28 Hao Chen , Jiacheng Tang , Abhishek Gupta

Detecting change-points in data is challenging because of the range of possible types of change and types of behaviour of data when there is no change. Statistically efficient methods for detecting a change will depend on both of these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-29 Jie Li , Paul Fearnhead , Piotr Fryzlewicz , Tengyao Wang

This paper addresses the challenge of accurately detecting the transition from the warmup phase to the steady state in performance metric time series, which is a critical step for effective benchmarking. The goal is to introduce a method…

Performance · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Martin Beseda , Vittorio Cortellessa , Daniele Di Pompeo , Luca Traini , Michele Tucci

We consider online detection strategies for identifying a change point in a stream of quantum particles allegedly prepared in identical states. We show that the identification of the change point can be done without error via sequential…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-11-07 Gael Sentís , Esteban Martínez-Vargas , Ramon Muñoz-Tapia

We introduce a framework for online changepoint detection and simultaneous model learning which is applicable to highly parametrized models, such as deep neural networks. It is based on detecting changepoints across time by sequentially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-08 Michalis K. Titsias , Jakub Sygnowski , Yutian Chen

We propose an algorithm for simultaneously detecting and locating changepoints in a time series, and a framework for predicting the distribution of the next point in the series. The kernel of the algorithm is a system of equations that…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-09 Allen B. Downey

We consider offline detection of a single changepoint in binary and count time-series. We compare exact tests based on the cumulative sum (CUSUM) and the likelihood ratio (LR) statistics, and a new proposal that combines exact two-sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-21 Shyamal K. De , Soumendu Sundar Mukherjee

We study the problem of online network change point detection. In this setting, a collection of independent Bernoulli networks is collected sequentially, and the underlying distributions change when a change point occurs. The goal is to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-15 Yi Yu , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

The detection of change points is a pivotal task in statistical analysis. In the quantum realm, it is a new primitive where one aims at identifying the point where a source that supposedly prepares a sequence of particles in identical…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-10-11 Gael Sentís , John Calsamiglia , Ramon Munoz-Tapia

In change-point analysis, one aims at finding the locations of abrupt distributional changes (if any) in a sequence of multivariate observations. In this article, we propose some nonparametric methods based on averages of pairwise distances…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-14 Spandan Ghoshal , Bilol Banerjee , Anil K. Ghosh

In this paper, we provide a review on the kernel method, which is one of the options for characterizing so-called exact tail asymptotic properties in stationary probabilities of two-dimensional random walks, discrete or continuous (or…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-29 Yiqiang Q. Zhao

Measures of discrepancy between probability distributions (statistical distance) are widely used in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning. We describe how certain measures of statistical distance can be implemented as…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2022-12-21 Chad E. Mitchell , Robert D. Ryne , Kilean Hwang

We present a novel approach to anomaly detection by integrating Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) processes into kernel-based methods. The GH distribution, known for its flexibility in modeling skewness, heavy tails, and kurtosis, helps to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Pauline Bourigault , Danilo P. Mandic

In this paper we introduce a novel approach for an important problem of break detection. Specifically, we are interested in detection of an abrupt change in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional random process -- a problem, which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-30 Valeriy Avanesov , Nazar Buzun

We consider the problem of detecting multiple changepoints in large data sets. Our focus is on applications where the number of changepoints will increase as we collect more data: for example in genetics as we analyse larger regions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 R. Killick , P. Fearnhead , I. A. Eckley

Online change-point detection (OCPD) is important for application in various areas such as finance, biology, and the Internet of Things (IoT). However, OCPD faces major challenges due to high-dimensionality, and it is still rarely studied…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-10 Yang-Wen Sun , Katerina Papagiannouli , Vladmir Spokoiny

We propose a novel family of test statistics to detect the presence of changepoints in a sequence of dependent, possibly multivariate, functional-valued observations. Our approach allows to test for a very general class of changepoints,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-10 B. Cooper Boniece , Lajos Horváth , Lorenzo Trapani

We present a novel distribution-free approach, the data-driven threshold machine (DTM), for a fundamental problem at the core of many learning tasks: choose a threshold for a given pre-specified level that bounds the tail probability of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-17 Shuang Li , Yao Xie , Le Song

We propose TrendSegment, a methodology for detecting multiple change-points corresponding to linear trend changes in one dimensional data. A core ingredient of TrendSegment is a new Tail-Greedy Unbalanced Wavelet transform: a conditionally…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-09 Hyeyoung Maeng , Piotr Fryzlewicz

Change point detection becomes more and more important as datasets increase in size, where unsupervised detection algorithms can help users process data. To detect change points, a number of unsupervised algorithms have been developed which…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Rebecca Gedda , Larisa Beilina , Ruomu Tan