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Inference metaprogramming enables effective probabilistic programming by supporting the decomposition of executions of probabilistic programs into subproblems and the deployment of hybrid probabilistic inference algorithms that apply…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Shivam Handa , Vikash Mansinghka , Martin Rinard

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-09 Fredrik Lindsten , Jouni Helske , Matti Vihola

In this paper we consider fully Bayesian inference in general state space models. Existing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms use an augmented model that takes into account all the variable sampled in a sequential Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-31 Christopher K. Carter , Eduardo F. Mendes , Robert Kohn

Universal probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) make it relatively easy to encode and automatically solve statistical inference problems. To solve inference problems, PPL implementations often apply Monte Carlo inference algorithms…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-04-08 Daniel Lundén , Lars Hummelgren , Jan Kudlicka , Oscar Eriksson , David Broman

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-07 Joel Janek Dabrowski , Daniel Edward Pagendam

A challenging problem in probabilistic programming is to develop inference algorithms that work for arbitrary programs in a universal probabilistic programming language (PPL). We present the nonparametric involutive Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-03 Carol Mak , Fabian Zaiser , Luke Ong

Algorithms for exact and approximate inference in stochastic logic programs (SLPs) are presented, based respectively, on variable elimination and importance sampling. We then show how SLPs can be used to represent prior distributions for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 James Cussens

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-04 Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Roman Garnett , Philipp Hennig , Stephen J. Roberts

Models of complex systems are often formalized as sequential software simulators: computationally intensive programs that iteratively build up probable system configurations given parameters and initial conditions. These simulators enable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-02 Ardavan Saeedi , Vlad Firoiu , Vikash Mansinghka

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a class of algorithms for drawing Markovian samples from high-dimensional target densities to approximate the numerical integration associated with computing statistical expectation, especially in Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-28 Khoa T. Tran

Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-27 Anna Wigren , Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Lawrence Murray , Fredrik Lindsten

Many probabilistic models introduce strong dependencies between variables using a latent multivariate Gaussian distribution or a Gaussian process. We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for performing inference in models with…

Computation · Statistics 2010-03-22 Iain Murray , Ryan Prescott Adams , David J. C. MacKay

This book is a graduate-level introduction to probabilistic programming. It not only provides a thorough background for anyone wishing to use a probabilistic programming system, but also introduces the techniques needed to design and build…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-20 Jan-Willem van de Meent , Brooks Paige , Hongseok Yang , Frank Wood

This paper presents a simulation-based framework for sequential inference from partially and discretely observed point process (PP's) models with static parameters. Taking on a Bayesian perspective for the static parameters, we build upon…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-24 James S. Martin , Ajay Jasra , Emma McCoy

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-07 Thomas A. Catanach , Huy D. Vo , Brian Munsky

Probabilistic programming languages represent complex data with intermingled models in a few lines of code. Efficient inference algorithms in probabilistic programming languages make possible to build unified frameworks to compute…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-15 Anh Tong , Jaesik Choi

In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-20 Junshan Wang , Ajay Jasra , Maria De Iorio

Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of {\it a-posteriori} estimators which are often…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 Luca Martino

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Isha Puri , Shivchander Sudalairaj , Guangxuan Xu , Kai Xu , Akash Srivastava