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Scientific machine learning has become an increasingly important tool in materials science and engineering. It is particularly well suited to tackle material problems involving many variables or to allow rapid construction of surrogates of…
Discrete stochastic processes (DSP) are instrumental for modelling the dynamics of probabilistic systems and have a wide spectrum of applications in science and engineering. DSPs are usually analyzed via Monte Carlo methods since the number…
We study parameter estimation for univariate stochastic differential equations with locally Lipschitz drift and H\"older continuous multiplicative diffusion, a class commonly arising in several applications. Existing inference methods…
We discuss the application of multilevel Monte Carlo methods to elliptic partial differential equations with random coefficients. Such problems arise, for example, in uncertainty quantification in subsurface flow modeling. We give a brief…
The Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm is a very powerful and versatile iterative method to estimate the probability of rare events, based on an interacting particle systems. In an other article, in a so-called idealized setting, the…
Conditional Monte Carlo (CMC) has been widely used for sensitivity estimation with discontinuous integrands as a standard simulation technique. A major limitation of using CMC in this context is that finding conditioning variables to ensure…
This paper concerns the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC) for smoothing in general state space models. A well-known problem when applying the standard SMC technique in the smoothing mode is that the resampling mechanism introduces…
We present a new unbiased algorithm that estimates the expected value of f(U) via Monte Carlo simulation, where U is a vector of d independent random variables, and f is a function of d variables. We assume that f does not depend equally on…
We study the approximation of $\mathbb{E}f(X_T)$ by a Monte Carlo algorithm, where $X$ is the solution of a stochastic differential equation and $f$ is a given function. We introduce a new variance reduction method, which can be viewed as a…
We present a new Monte Carlo methodology for the accurate estimation of the distribution of the sum of dependent log-normal random variables. The methodology delivers statistically unbiased estimators for three distributional quantities of…
We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…
The bifurcation method is a way to do rare event sampling -- to estimate the probability of events that are too rare to be found by direct simulation. We describe the bifurcation method and use it to estimate the transition rate of a double…
The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is highly efficient for estimating expectations of a functional of a solution to a stochastic differential equation (SDE). However, MLMC estimators may be unstable and have a poor (noncanonical)…
The aim of this paper is to introduce a new Monte Carlo method based on importance sampling techniques for the simulation of stochastic differential equations. The main idea is to combine random walk on squares or rectangles methods with…
In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…
Recent work has suggested using Monte Carlo methods based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to sample from target distributions of interest. PDMPs are non-reversible continuous-time processes endowed with momentum, and…
We present general principles for the design and analysis of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators in a wide range of settings. Our estimators posses finite work-normalized variance under mild regularity conditions. We apply our estimators to…
Many popular statistical models for complex phenomena are intractable, in the sense that the likelihood function cannot easily be evaluated. Bayesian estimation in this setting remains challenging, with a lack of computational methodology…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…
Monte Carlo simulations are based on the manipulation of random numbers to evaluate probable outcomes, with applicability in a variety of different fields. By assigning probabilities, which can be determined a priori, to various events, it…