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We consider a stochastic model describing a constant size $N$ population that may be seen as a directed polymer in random medium with $N$ sites in the transverse direction. The population dynamics is governed by a noisy traveling wave…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-07 Aser Cortines

We study a model of selection acting on a diploid population (one in which each individual carries two copies of each gene) living in one spatial dimension. We suppose a particular gene appears in two forms (alleles) $A$ and $a$, and that…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-09 Alison Etheridge , Sarah Penington

Duality plays an important role in population genetics. It can relate results from forwards-in-time models of allele frequency evolution with those of backwards-in-time genealogical models; a well known example is the duality between the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-08-09 Robert C. Griffiths , Paul A. Jenkins , Sabin Lessard

We study a population model of fixed size undergoing strong selection where individuals accumulate beneficial mutations, namely the Moran model with selection. In a specific setting with strong selection, Schweinsberg showed that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-31 François Gaston Ged

In a series of recent works it has been shown that a class of simple models of evolving populations under selection leads to genealogical trees whose statistics are given by the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent rather than by the well known…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-05-28 Éric Brunet , Bernard Derrida

We derive the asymptotic behaviour of the genealogy of a logistic branching process in the setting where the equilibrium population size is large. In three regimes on the tail of the offspring distribution we recover the Kingman,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Ruairi Garrett , Julio Ernesto Nava Trejo

Sweepstakes reproduction may be generated by chance matching of reproduction with favorable environmental conditions. Gene genealogies generated by sweepstakes reproduction are in the domain of attraction of multiple-merger coalescents…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-15 Bjarki Eldon

We consider an extension of the noisy $N$-Branching Random Walk that models the evolution of a population subject to natural selection. We show the existence of a critical value for the noise which separates the limiting genealogical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-03-17 Emmanuel Schertzer , Alejandro H. Wences

Recruitment dynamics, or the distribution of the number of offspring among individuals, is central for understanding ecology and evolution. Sweepstakes reproduction (heavy right-tailed offspring number distribution) is central for…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-16 Bjarki Eldon

We review the statistical properties of the genealogies of a few models of evolution. In the asexual case, selection leads to coalescence times which grow logarithmically with the size of the population in contrast with the linear growth of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-04 Éric Brunet , Bernard Derrida

We study voter models defined on large sets. Through a perspective emphasizing the martingale property of voter density processes, we prove that in general, their convergence to the Wright-Fisher diffusion only involves certain averages of…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-25 Yu-Ting Chen , Jihyeok Choi , J. Theodore Cox

We consider a system of particles which perform branching Brownian motion with negative drift and are killed upon reaching zero, in the near-critical regime where the total population stays roughly constant with approximately N particles.…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-15 Julien Berestycki , Nathanaël Berestycki , Jason Schweinsberg

We ask the question "when will natural selection on a gene in a spatially structured population cause a detectable trace in the patterns of genetic variation observed in the contemporary population?". We focus on the situation in which…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-17 Alison Etheridge , Nic Freeman , Sarah Penington , Daniel Straulino

Consider a branching Markov process with values in some general type space. Conditional on survival up to generation $N$, the genealogy of the extant population defines a random marked metric measure space, where individuals are marked by…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-12 Félix Foutel-Rodier , Emmanuel Schertzer

We consider a one-dimensional dyadic branching Brownian motion on $\mathbb{R}$ with positive drift $\beta \in (0,1)$, branching rate $1/2$, reflected at $0$ and killed at a boundary $L > 0$. The killing boundary $L$ is chosen so that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Florin Boenkost , Julie Tourniaire

Evolutionary models for populations of constant size are frequently studied using the Moran model, the Wright-Fisher model, or their diffusion limits. When evolution is neutral, a random genealogy given through Kingman's coalescent is used…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-07-31 Peter Pfaffelhuber , Benedikt Vogt

We identify a new natural coalescent structure, which we call the seed-bank coalescent, that describes the gene genealogy of populations under the influence of a strong seed-bank effect, where "dormant forms" of individuals (such as seeds…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-10 Jochen Blath , Adrián González Casanova , Noemi Kurt , Maite Wilke-Berenguer

We investigate a new model for populations evolving in a spatial continuum. This model can be thought of as a spatial version of the Lambda-Fleming-Viot process. It explicitly incorporates both small scale reproduction events and large…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-03-22 N. H. Barton , A. M. Etheridge , A. Veber

We consider a model of a population of fixed size $N$ undergoing selection. Each individual acquires beneficial mutations at rate $\mu_N$, and each beneficial mutation increases the individual's fitness by $s_N$. Each individual dies at…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-03 Jason Schweinsberg

We analyse a family of two-types Wright-Fisher models with selection in a random environment and skewed offspring distribution. We provide a calculable criterion to quantify the impact of different shapes of selection on the fate of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Adrián González Casanova , Dario Spanò , Maite Wilke-Berenguer
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