Related papers: Variance Dynamics - An empirical journey
We exploit a continuous time random walk description of stock prices to obtain a fast and accurate evaluation of their volatility from intraday data. We show that financial markets are usefully described as open physical systems. Indeed we…
We present an explicit hedging strategy, which enables to prove arbitrageness of market incorporating at least two assets depending on the same random factor. The implied Black-Scholes volatility, computed taking into account the form of…
We consider implied volatilities in asset pricing models, where the discounted underlying is a strict local martingale under the pricing measure. Our main result gives an asymptotic expansion of the right wing of the implied volatility…
This paper derives explicit formulas for both the small and large time limits of the implied volatility in the minimal market model. It is shown that interest rates do impact on the implied volatility in the long run even though they are…
We develop a behavioral model for liquidity and volatility based on empirical regularities in trading order flow in the London Stock Exchange. This can be viewed as a very simple agent based model in which all components of the model are…
We provide a comprehensive analysis of spot volatility inference in pure-jump semimartingales under two asymptotic settings: fixed-$k$, where each local window uses a fixed number of observations, and large-$k$, where this number grows with…
In the stochastic volatility models for multivariate daily stock returns, it has been found that the estimates of parameters become unstable as the dimension of returns increases. To solve this problem, we focus on the factor structure of…
In complex systems, many different parts interact in non-obvious ways. Traditional research focuses on a few or a single aspect of the problem so as to analyze it with the tools available. To get a better insight of phenomena that emerge…
We consider an asset whose risk-neutral dynamics are described by a general class of local-stochastic volatility models and derive a family of asymptotic expansions for European-style option prices and implied volatilities. Our implied…
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the…
This paper analyses the behaviour of volatility for several international stock market indexes, namely the SP 500 (USA), the Nikkei (Japan), the PSI 20 (Portugal), the CAC 40 (France), the DAX 30 (Germany), the FTSE 100 (UK), the IBEX 35…
It has been recently shown that spot volatilities can be very well modeled by rough stochastic volatility type dynamics. In such models, the log-volatility follows a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter smaller than 1/2. This…
We calculate the realized volatility in the spin model of financial markets and examine the returns standardized by the realized volatility. We find that moments of the standardized returns agree with the theoretical values of standard…
We empirically investigate the functional link between the variance swap rate and the spot variance. Using S\&P500 data over the period 2006-2018, we find overwhelming empirical evidence supporting the affine link analytically found by…
High frequency data in finance have led to a deeper understanding on probability distributions of market prices. Several facts seem to be well stablished by empirical evidence. Specifically, probability distributions have the following…
Implied volatility IV is a key metric in financial markets, reflecting market expectations of future price fluctuations. Research has explored IV's relationship with moneyness, focusing on its connection to the implied Hurst exponent H. Our…
We study the price dynamics of 65 stocks from the Dow Jones Composite Average from 1973 until 2014. We show that it is possible to define a Daily Market Volatility $\sigma(t)$ which is directly observable from data. This quantity is usually…
Spatial heteroskedasticity refers to stochastically changing variances and covariances in space. Such features have been observed in, for example, air pollution and vegetation data. We study how volatility modulated moving averages can…
Financial markets provide an ideal frame for studying decision making in crowded environments. Both the amount and accuracy of the data allows to apply tools and concepts coming from physics that studies collective and emergent phenomena or…
In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered synonym of greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To…