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One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-02-04 Robbin Bastiaansen , Henk A. Dijkstra , Anna S. von der Heydt

Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-12 Joshua A. M. Duffield , Michael P. Byrne

Next-generation space telescopes will observe the atmospheres of rocky planets orbiting nearby M-dwarfs. Understanding these observations will require well-developed theory in addition to numerical simulations. Here we present theoretical…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2016-08-29 Daniel D. B. Koll , Dorian S. Abbot

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-05-25 Valerio Lucarini , Frank Lunkeit , Francesco Ragone

Regional Climate Models (RCM) describe the meso scale global atmospheric and oceanic dynamics and serve as dynamical downscaling models. In other words, RCMs use atmospheric and oceanic climate output from General Circulation Models (GCM)…

Earth's temperature variability can be partitioned into internal and externally-forced components. Yet, underlying mechanisms and their relative contributions remain insufficiently understood, especially on decadal to centennial timescales.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-01 Maybritt Schillinger , Beatrice Ellerhoff , Robert Scheichl , Kira Rehfeld

Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-10-29 Nicola Scafetta

A large fraction of known terrestrial-size exoplanets located in the Habitable Zone of M-dwarfs are expected to be tidally-locked. Numerous efforts have been conducted to study the climate of such planets, using in particular 3-D Global…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2021-06-09 Maxence Lefèvre , Martin Turbet , Raymond Pierrehumbert

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-25 Seth Bassetti , Brian Hutchinson , Claudia Tebaldi , Ben Kravitz

Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-05-26 Mark S. Williamson , Chad W. Thackeray , Peter M. Cox , Alex Hall , Chris Huntingford , Femke J. M. M. Nijsse

Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-29 Trevor Harris , Ryan Sriver

With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-05 Surya Dheeshjith , Adam Subel , Shubham Gupta , Alistair Adcroft , Carlos Fernandez-Granda , Julius Busecke , Laure Zanna

Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-07-16 Nicola Scafetta

Sites for next-generation telescopes are chosen decades before the first light of a telescope. Site selection is usually based on recent measurements over a period that is too short to account for long-term changes in observing conditions…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-09-28 C. Haslebacher , M. -E. Demory , B. -O. Demory , M. Sarazin , P. L. Vidale

Compositional convection is atmospheric mixing driven by density variations caused by compositional gradients. Previous studies have suggested that compositional gradients of atmospheric trace species within planetary atmospheres can impact…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-18 Namrah Habib , Raymond T. Pierrehumbert

We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-07-28 Justus Contzen , Thorsten Dickhaus , Gerrit Lohmann

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, the GCM Outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-09 Wentao Gao , Jiuyong Li , Debo Cheng , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le , Xiaojing Du , Xiongren Chen , Yanchang Zhao , Yun Chen

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 {\deg}C to 5.67 {\deg}C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 {\deg}C; medium, 3.01-4.50 {\deg}C; high,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-30 Nicola Scafetta

Even if their detection is for now challenging, observation of small terrestrial planets will be easier in a near future thanks to continuous improvements of detection and characterisation instruments. In this quest, climate modeling is a…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-12-20 G. Chaverot , E. Bolmont , M. Turbet

Effective water resource management depends on accurate projections of flows in water channels. For projected climate data, use of different General Circulation Models (GCM) simulates contrasting results. This study shows selection of GCM…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-16 Saad Ahmed Jamal , Ammara Nusrat , Muhammad Azmat , Muhammad Osama Nusrat