Related papers: Dynamic Bayesian Networks as Formal Abstractions o…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually…
In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…
We present a numerical method to compute expectations of functionals of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process. We discuss time dependent functionals as well as deterministic time horizon problems. Our approach is based on the…
We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
We propose a Dynamical Boolean Network (DBN), which is a Virtual Boolean Network (VBN) whose set of states is fixed but whose transition matrix can change from one discrete time step to another. The transition matrix $T_{k}$ of our DBN for…
Bayesian Networks (BNs) represent conditional probability relations among a set of random variables (nodes) in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG), and have found diverse applications in knowledge discovery. We study the problem of…
We demonstrate that a number of sociology models for social network dynamics can be viewed as continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs). A sampling-based approximate inference method for CTBNs can be used as the basis of an…
This paper introduces a novel abstraction-based framework for controller synthesis of nonlinear discrete-time stochastic systems. The focus is on probabilistic reach-avoid specifications. The framework is based on abstracting a stochastic…
This paper studies the construction of dynamic symbolic abstractions for nonlinear control systems via dynamic quantization. Since computational complexity is a fundamental problem in the use of discrete abstractions, a dynamic quantizer…
Marginal-based methods achieve promising performance in the synthetic data competition hosted by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). To deal with high-dimensional data, the distribution of synthetic data is…
We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…
This paper studies the synthesis of controllers for discrete-time, continuous state stochastic systems subject to omega-regular specifications using finite-state abstractions. We present a synthesis algorithm for minimizing or maximizing…
In this paper we propose a new methodology for solving a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. By utilizing the Dirichlet process, we model the unknown distribution of the underlying stochastic process…
We consider the simulation of Bayesian statistical inverse problems governed by large-scale linear and nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are standard techniques to solve such…
Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are a general model for stochastic processes with partially observed states. Belief filtering in DBNs is the task of inferring the belief state (i.e. the probability distribution over process states) based…
Markov Population Models are a widespread formalism used to model the dynamics of complex systems, with applications in Systems Biology and many other fields. The associated Markov stochastic process in continuous time is often analyzed by…
This paper develops the first class of algorithms that enable unbiased estimation of steady-state expectations for multidimensional reflected Brownian motion. In order to explain our ideas, we first consider the case of compound Poisson…
Discrete-time stochastic systems are an essential modelling tool for many engineering systems. We consider stochastic control systems that are evolving over continuous spaces. For this class of models, methods for the formal verification…
One of the fundamental challenges in the deep learning community is to theoretically understand how well a deep neural network generalizes to unseen data. However, current approaches often yield generalization bounds that are either too…