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Nested sampling is a powerful approach to Bayesian inference ultimately limited by the computationally demanding task of sampling from a heavily constrained probability distribution. An effective algorithm in its own right, Hamiltonian…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-02 M. J. Betancourt

Chance-constrained programming (CCP) is one of the most difficult classes of optimization problems that has attracted the attention of researchers since the 1950s. In this survey, we focus on cases when only a limited information on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-02-15 Simge Küçükyavuz , Ruiwei Jiang

Anytime approximation algorithms that compute the probabilities of queries over probabilistic databases can be of great use to statistical learning tasks. Those approaches have been based so far on either (i) sampling or (ii)…

Databases · Computer Science 2018-07-04 Maarten Van den Heuvel , Floris Geerts , Wolfgang Gatterbauer , Martin Theobald

The world is not static: This causes real-world time series to change over time through external, and potentially disruptive, events such as macroeconomic cycles or the COVID-19 pandemic. We present an adaptive sampling strategy that…

This paper introduces a new statistical approach to partitioning text automatically into coherent segments. Our approach enlists both short-range and long-range language models to help it sniff out likely sites of topic changes in text. To…

cmp-lg · Computer Science 2008-02-03 Doug Beeferman , Adam Berger , John Lafferty

We present a convex approach to probabilistic segmentation and modeling of time series data. Our approach builds upon recent advances in multivariate total variation regularization, and seeks to learn a separate set of parameters for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-17 Matt Wytock , J. Zico Kolter

We study the geometric structure of the statistical models for two-by-two contingency tables. One or two odds ratios are fixed and the corresponding models are shown to be a portion of a ruled quadratic surface or a segment. Some pointers…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Enrico Carlini , Fabio Rapallo

An innovative sampling strategy is proposed, which applies to large-scale population-based surveys targeting a rare trait that is unevenly spread over a geographical area of interest. Our proposal is characterised by the ability to tailor…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-07 Fulvia Mecatti , Charalambos Sismanidis , Emanuela Furfaro

In social and biomedical sciences testing in contingency tables often involves order restrictions on cell-probabilities parameters. We develop objective Bayes methods for order-constrained testing and model comparison when observations…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-24 Roberta Paroli , Guido Consonni

This paper develops a clustering method that takes advantage of the sturdiness of model-based clustering, while attempting to mitigate some of its pitfalls. First, we note that standard model-based clustering likely leads to the same number…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-09 Miguel de Carvalho , Gabriel Martos Venturini , Andrej Svetlošák

Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows…

In Bayesian theory, calculating a posterior probability distribution is highly important but usually difficult. Therefore, some methods have been put forward to deal with such problem, among which, the most popular one is the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-20 Zai-Ying Zhou

A new methodology is proposed for generating realizations of a random vector with values in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space that are statistically consistent with a data set of observations of this vector. The probability distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-24 Christian Soize , Roger Ghanem

We describe a new approach to the rare-event Monte Carlo sampling problem. This technique utilizes a symmetrization strategy to create probability distributions that are more highly connected and thus more easily sampled than their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-28 Nuria Plattner , J. D. Doll , Paul Dupuis , Hui Wang , Yufei Liu , J. E. Gubernatis

We derive recursions for the probability distribution of random sums by computer algebra. Unlike the well-known Panjer-type recursions, they are of finite order and thus allow for computation in linear time. This efficiency is bought by the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-23 S. Gerhold , R. Warnung

As an alternative to the well-known methods of "chaining" and "bracketing" that have been developed in the study of random fields, a new method, which is based on a {\em stochastic maximal inequality} derived by using the formula for…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-16 Yoichi Nishiyama

In this paper we present efficient algorithmic solutions for several constrained resource allocation, management and discovery problems. We consider new types of resource allocation models and constraints, and we present new geometric…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2009-06-09 Mugurel Ionut Andreica , Madalina Ecaterina Andreica , Daniel Ardelean

Compressive sampling has become a widely used approach to construct polynomial chaos surrogates when the number of available simulation samples is limited. Originally, these expensive simulation samples would be obtained at random locations…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-04 Negin Alemazkoor , Hadi Meidani

Spectral clustering is one of the most popular clustering methods. However, how to balance the efficiency and effectiveness of the large-scale spectral clustering with limited computing resources has not been properly solved for a long…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Hongmin Li , Xiucai Ye , Akira Imakura , Tetsuya Sakurai

We construct examples of contingency tables on $n$ binary random variables where the gap between the linear programming lower/upper bound and the true integer lower/upper bounds on cell entries is exponentially large. These examples provide…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Seth Sullivant