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The clarion call for causal reduction in the study of capital markets is intensifying. However, in self-referencing and open systems such as capital markets, the idea of unidirectional causation (if applicable) may be limiting at best, and…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-07 Daniel Polakow , Tim Gebbie , Emlyn Flint

Retriever-augmented instruction-following models are attractive alternatives to fine-tuned approaches for information-seeking tasks such as question answering (QA). By simply prepending retrieved documents in its input along with an…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-18 Vaibhav Adlakha , Parishad BehnamGhader , Xing Han Lu , Nicholas Meade , Siva Reddy

Estimation of causal effects is fundamental in situations were the underlying system will be subject to active interventions. Part of building a causal inference engine is defining how variables relate to each other, that is, defining the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-02 Sergio Garrido , Stanislav S. Borysov , Jeppe Rich , Francisco C. Pereira

Traditional approaches to non-monotonic reasoning fail to satisfy a number of plausible axioms for belief revision and suffer from conceptual difficulties as well. Recent work on ranked preferential models (RPMs) promises to overcome some…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Daniel Hunter

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Weihong Li , Baohong Li , Anpeng Wu , Zhihan Li , Ming Ma , Keting Yin , Kun Kuang

Nonlinear machine-learning models are increasingly used to discover causal relationships in time-series data, yet the interpretation of their outputs remains poorly understood. In particular, causal scores produced by regularized neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Valentina Kuskova , Dmitry Zaytsev , Michael Coppedge

Causal inference and model interpretability research are gaining increasing attention, especially in the domains of healthcare and bioinformatics. Despite recent successes in this field, decorrelating features under nonlinear environments…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Junda Wang , Weijian Li , Han Wang , Hanjia Lyu , Caroline Thirukumaran , Addisu Mesfin , Jiebo Luo

There is broad agreement in the literature that explanation methods should be faithful to the model that they explain, but faithfulness remains a rather vague term. We revisit faithfulness in the context of continuous data and propose two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-20 Nico Potyka , Xiang Yin , Francesca Toni

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

Within quantum theory, we can create superpositions of different causal orders of events, and observe interference between them. This raises the question of whether quantum theory can produce results that would be impossible to replicate…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-10-07 Tom Purves , Anthony J. Short

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Amir-Hossein Karimi , Krikamol Muandet , Simon Kornblith , Bernhard Schölkopf , Been Kim

Of all basic principles of classical physics, realism should arguably be the last to be given up when seeking a better interpretation of quantum mechanics. We examine the de Broglie-Bohm pilot wave theory as a well developed example of a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-12-22 Eliahu Cohen , Marina Cortês , Avshalom C. Elitzur , Lee Smolin

Retrocausal models of QM add further weight to the conflict between causality and the possible existence of free will. We analyze a simple closed causal loop ensuing from the interaction between two systems with opposing thermodynamic time…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-01-12 Yakir Aharonov , Eliahu Cohen , Tomer Shushi

Recent work has raised concerns on the risk of spurious correlations and unintended biases in statistical machine learning models that threaten model robustness and fairness. In this paper, we propose a simple and intuitive regularization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Zhao Wang , Kai Shu , Aron Culotta

This paper proposes a causal inference relation and causal programming as general frameworks for causal inference with structural causal models. A tuple, $\langle M, I, Q, F \rangle$, is an instance of the relation if a formula, $F$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-08 Joshua Brulé

A crucial and problematical feature of quantum mechanics (QM) is nonobjectivity of properties. The ESR model restores objectivity reinterpreting quantum probabilities as conditional on detection and embodying the mathematical formalism of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-03-13 Claudio Garola , Sandro Sozzo

Motivated by Popescu's example of hidden nonlocality, we elaborate on the conjecture that quantum states that are intuitively nonlocal, i.e., entangled, do not admit a local causal hidden variables model. We exhibit quantum states which…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-10-30 Stefan Teufel , Karin Berndl , Detlef Dürr , Sheldon Goldstein , Nino Zangh\`ı

While LLMs exhibit impressive fluency and factual recall, they struggle with robust causal reasoning, often relying on spurious correlations and brittle patterns. Similarly, traditional Reinforcement Learning agents also lack causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Abi Aryan , Zac Liu

State-of-the-art AI models largely lack an understanding of the cause-effect relationship that governs human understanding of the real world. Consequently, these models do not generalize to unseen data, often produce unfair results, and are…

A new possible version of multisimultaneous causality is proposed, and real experiments allowing us to decide between this view and quantum mechanical retrocausation are further discussed. The interest of testing quantum mechanics against…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Antoine Suarez
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