Related papers: Prediction and typicality in multiverse cosmology
Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…
A general Friedmann big-bang cosmology can be specified by fixing a half-dozen cosmological parameters such as the photon-to-baryon ratio Eta, the cosmological constant Lambda, the curvature scale R, and the amplitude Q of (assumed…
We show that anthropic selection emerges inevitably in the general framework for prediction in quantum cosmology. There the predictions of anthropic reasoning depend on the prior implied by the universe's quantum state. To illustrate this…
A modern assessment of the classical Boltzmann-Schuetz argument for large-scale entropy fluctuations as the origin of our observable cosmological domain is given. The emphasis is put on the central implication of this picture which flatly…
A knowledge system S describing a part of real world does in general not contain complete information. Reasoning with incomplete information is prone to errors since any belief derived from S may be false in the present state of the world.…
We attempt to dissolve the measurement problem using an anthropic principle which allows us to invoke rational observers. We argue that the key feature of such observers is that they are rational (we need not care whether they are…
Many data mining approaches aim at modelling and predicting human behaviour. An important quantity of interest is the quality of model-based predictions, e.g. for finding a competition winner with best prediction performance. In real life,…
Cognitive theories for reasoning are about understanding how humans come to conclusions from a set of premises. Starting from hypothetical thoughts, we are interested which are the implications behind basic everyday language and how do we…
The fundamental laws and constants of our universe seem to be finely tuned for life. The various multiverse hypotheses are popular explanations for the fine tuning. This paper reviews the four main suggestions on inference in the presence…
The idea of a multiverse -- an ensemble of universes or universe domains -- has received increasing attention in cosmology, both as the outcome of the originating process that generated our own universe, and as an explanation for why our…
We examine the issue of stability of probability in reasoning about complex systems with uncertainty in structure. Normally, propositions are viewed as probability functions on an abstract random graph where it is implicitly assumed that…
Anthropic principles were grown from the problem of fine tuning. Although anthropic principles have been discussed in cosmology for years there is no exact definition for fine tuning. Starting from the supposed similarity in the topologies…
Normality, in the colloquial sense, has historically been considered an aspirational trait, synonymous with ideality. The arithmetic average and, by extension, statistics including linear regression coefficients, have often been used to…
Cosmology contributes a good deal to the investigation of variation of fundamental physical constants. High resolution data is available and allows for detailed analysis over cosmological distances and a multitude of methods were developed.…
Increasingly encompassing models have been suggested for our world. Theories range from generally accepted to increasingly speculative to apparently bogus. The progression of theories from ego- to geo- to helio-centric models to universe…
Traditional cognitive science rests on a foundation of classical logic and probability theory. This foundation has been seriously challenged by several findings in experimental psychology on human decision making. Meanwhile, the formalism…
Bayesian probability theory is used to analyze the oft-made assumption that humans are typical observers in the universe. Some theoretical calculations make the {\it selection fallacy} that we are randomly chosen from a class of objects by…
Abstraction is a powerful idea widely used in science, to model, reason and explain the behavior of systems in a more tractable search space, by omitting irrelevant details. While notions of abstraction have matured for deterministic…
A cosmological constant fits all current dark energy data, but requires two extreme fine tunings, both of which are currently explained by anthropic arguments. Here we discuss anti-anthropic solutions to one of these problems: the cosmic…
There is a deep cosmological mystery: although dependent on very different underlying physics, the timescales of structure formation, of galaxy cooling (both radiatively and against the CMB), and of vacuum domination do not differ by many…