Related papers: Bayesian inference for the Brown-Resnick process, …

Maximum likelihood estimation for parameter-fitting given observations from a Gaussian process in space is a computationally-demanding task that restricts the use of such methods to moderately-sized datasets. We present a framework for…

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

We consider the standard thermodynamic processes with constraints, but with additional uncertainty about the control parameters. Motivated by inductive reasoning, we assign prior distribution that provides a rational guess about likely…

Tree-based priors for probability distributions are usually specified using a predetermined, data-independent collection of candidate recursive partitions of the sample space. To characterize an unknown target density in detail over the…

Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian…

Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of…

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inferential methods for data from controlled branching processes that account for model robustness through the use of disparities. Under regularity conditions, we establish that estimators built on…

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

In recent years, parametric models for max-stable processes have become a popular choice for modeling spatial extremes because they arise as the asymptotic limit of rescaled maxima of independent and identically distributed random…

Computing the marginal likelihood or evidence is one of the core challenges in Bayesian analysis. While there are many established methods for estimating this quantity, they predominantly rely on using a large number of posterior samples…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for approximating likelihoods and is often used in parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable. Although the use of ABC is widespread in many…

Bayesian methods are particularly effective for addressing inverse problems due to their ability to manage uncertainties inherent in the inference process. However, employing these methods with costly forward models poses significant…

We introduce a random probability measure on the profinite completion of the random tree of a branching process and introduce the canonical and grand canonical ensembles of random repelling particles on this random profinite completion at…

We propose a practical Bayesian optimization method using Gaussian process regression, of which the marginal likelihood is maximized where the number of model selection steps is guided by a pre-defined threshold. Since Bayesian optimization…

In Part I (arXiv:1911.00619) of this article, we proposed an importance sampling algorithm to compute rare-event probabilities in forward uncertainty quantification problems. The algorithm, which we termed the "Bayesian Inverse Monte Carlo…

A recent trend in Bayesian research has been revisiting generalizations of the likelihood that enable Bayesian inference without requiring the specification of a model for the data generating mechanism. This paper focuses on a Bayesian…