Related papers: GEFCOM 2014 - Probabilistic Electricity Price Fore…

Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) is an extremely powerful supervised learning algorithm that is widely used in practice. GBM routinely features as a leading algorithm in machine learning competitions such as Kaggle and the KDDCup. In this…

This paper proposes two distinct contributions to econometric analysis of large information sets and structural instabilities. First, it treats a regression model with time-varying coefficients, stochastic volatility and exogenous…

PV power forecasting models are predominantly based on machine learning algorithms which do not provide any insight into or explanation about their predictions (black boxes). Therefore, their direct implementation in environments where…

In recent years, there has been a significant focus on advancing the next generation of power systems. Despite these efforts, persistent challenges revolve around addressing the operational impact of uncertainty on predicted data,…

The reliable estimation of forecast uncertainties is crucial for risk-sensitive optimal decision making. In this paper, we propose implicit generative ensemble post-processing, a novel framework for multivariate probabilistic electricity…

There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…

This paper presents a new method for combining (or aggregating or ensembling) multivariate probabilistic forecasts, considering dependencies between quantiles and marginals through a smoothing procedure that allows for online learning. We…

Calibration sample selection and forecast combination are two simple yet powerful tools used in forecasting. They can be combined with a variety of models to significantly improve prediction accuracy, at the same time offering easy…

The participants of the electricity market concern very much the market price evolution. Various technologies have been developed for price forecast. SVM (Support Vector Machine) has shown its good performance in market price forecast. Two…

Techniques of hybridisation and ensemble learning are popular model fusion techniques for improving the predictive power of forecasting methods. With limited research that instigates combining these two promising approaches, this paper…

For many practical, high-risk applications, it is essential to quantify uncertainty in a model's predictions to avoid costly mistakes. While predictive uncertainty is widely studied for neural networks, the topic seems to be under-explored…

Because of increasing amounts of intermittent and distributed generators in power systems, many demand response programs have been developed to schedule flexible energy consumption. However, proper benchmarks for comparing these methods are…

Demand forecasting in supply chain management (SCM) is critical for optimizing inventory, reducing waste, and improving customer satisfaction. Conventional approaches frequently neglect external influences like weather, festivities, and…

Accurate short-term electricity price forecasting is crucial for strategically scheduling demand and generation bids in day-ahead markets. While data-driven techniques have shown considerable prowess in achieving high forecast accuracy in…

The economic and banking importance of the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector is well recognized in contemporary society. Business credit loans are very important for the operation of SMEs, and the revenue is a key indicator of credit…

The theory of boosting provides a computational framework for aggregating approximate weak learning algorithms, which perform marginally better than a random predictor, into an accurate strong learner. In the realizable case, the success of…

This paper details the approach of the team $\textit{Kohrrelation}$ in the 2021 Extreme Value Analysis data challenge, dealing with the prediction of wildfire counts and sizes over the contiguous US. Our approach uses ideas from…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting…

Gaining a deeper understanding of weather and being able to predict its future conduct have always been considered important endeavors for the growth of our society. This research paper explores the advancements in understanding and…

Accurately forecasting electricity price volatility is crucial for effective risk management and decision-making. Traditional forecasting models often fall short in capturing the complex, non-linear dynamics of electricity markets,…