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Selective inference aims at providing valid inference after a data-driven selection of models or hypotheses. It is essential to avoid overconfident results and replicability issues. While significant advances have been made in this area for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Matteo D'Alessandro , Magne Thoresen

A goodness-of-fit test for the fitting of a parametric model to data obtained from a detector with finite resolution and limited acceptance is proposed. The parameters of the model are found by minimization of a statistic that is used for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-17 N. D. Gagunashvili

Insightful interdisciplinary collaboration is essential to the principled governance of technology. When such efforts address the interaction between computation and society, they often focus on modeling, the process by which computer…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Samuel Judson , Joan Feigenbaum

Penalized likelihood and quasi-likelihood methods dominate inference in high-dimensional linear mixed-effects models. Sampling-based Bayesian inference is less explored due to the computational bottlenecks introduced by the random effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Sreya Sarkar , Kshitij Khare , Sanvesh Srivastava

We extend the constrained maximum likelihood estimation theory for parameters of a completely identified model, proposed by Aitchison and Silvey (1958), to parameters arising from a partially identified model. With a partially identified…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-01 Hao Luo , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Gabriela Cohen Freue , Paul Gustafson

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Emily Black , Klas Leino , Matt Fredrikson

The Rashomon Effect describes the following phenomenon: for a given dataset there may exist many models with equally good performance but with different solution strategies. The Rashomon Effect has implications for Explainable Machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-30 Sebastian Müller , Vanessa Toborek , Katharina Beckh , Matthias Jakobs , Christian Bauckhage , Pascal Welke

Random graph mixture models are now very popular for modeling real data networks. In these setups, parameter estimation procedures usually rely on variational approximations, either combined with the expectation-maximisation (\textsc{em})…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-12-09 Christophe Ambroise , Catherine Matias

Recent advances on overfitting Bayesian mixture models provide a solid and straightforward approach for inferring the underlying number of clusters and model parameters in heterogeneous datasets. The applicability of such a framework in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-29 Panagiotis Papastamoulis

Mixed-effects regression models represent a useful subclass of regression models for grouped data; the introduction of random effects allows for the correlation between observations within each group to be conveniently captured when…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-25 Jackson Zhou , John T. Ormerod , Clara Grazian

Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-18 Jiacheng Wu , Jian-Xun Wang , Shawn C. Shadden

Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are ubiquitous in statistical learning, particularly for unsupervised problems. While full GMMs suffer from the overparameterization of their covariance matrices in high-dimensional spaces, spherical GMMs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-10 Tom Szwagier , Pierre-Alexandre Mattei , Charles Bouveyron , Xavier Pennec

Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Ryan Martin , Surya T. Tokdar

Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-02 Sarah Higgins , Hailiang Du , Leonard A. Smith

Mixtures of factor analyzers are becoming more and more popular in the area of model based clustering of high-dimensional data. According to the likelihood approach in data modeling, it is well known that the unconstrained log-likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-09 Francesca Greselin , Salvatore Ingrassia

The presence of unobserved node specific heterogeneity in Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) is a general concern, both with respect to model validity as well as estimation instability. We therefore extend the ERGM by including node…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-24 Sevag Kevork , Göran Kauermann

Missing data is an important challenge when dealing with high dimensional data arranged in the form of an array. In this paper, we propose methods for estimation of the parameters of array variate normal probability model from partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-06 Deniz Akdemir

We consider nonlinear mixed effects models including high-dimensional covariates to model individual parameters variability. The objective is to identify relevant covariates among a large set under sparsity assumption and to estimate model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Antoine Caillebotte , Estelle Kuhn , Sarah Lemler

Data from both a randomized trial and an observational study are sometimes simultaneously available for evaluating the effect of an intervention. The randomized data typically allows for reliable estimation of average treatment effects but…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-01 David Cheng , Tianxi Cai

Finite mixture models are widely used in econometric analyses to capture unobserved heterogeneity. This paper shows that maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixtures of parametric densities can suffer from substantial finite-sample bias…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Raphaël Langevin
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