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In this paper we present a novel inference methodology to perform Bayesian inference for spatiotemporal Cox processes where the intensity function depends on a multivariate Gaussian process. Dynamic Gaussian processes are introduced to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-12 Flávio B. Gonçalves , Dani Gamerman

A gentle introduction to Gaussian processes (GPs). The three parts of the document consider GPs for regression, classification, and dimensionality reduction.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-01 Mark Ebden

The increased demand for online prediction and the growing availability of large data sets drives the need for computationally efficient models. While exact Gaussian process regression shows various favorable theoretical properties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-02 Armin Lederer , Alejandro Jose Ordonez Conejo , Korbinian Maier , Wenxin Xiao , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Teemu Härkönen , Simo Särkkä

In this paper, we introduce a new probability distribution, the Lasso distribution. We derive several fundamental properties of the distribution, including closed-form expressions for its moments and moment-generating function.…

Complex behaviour in many systems arises from the stochastic interactions of spatially distributed particles or agents. Stochastic reaction-diffusion processes are widely used to model such behaviour in disciplines ranging from biology to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-23 David Schnoerr , Ramon Grima , Guido Sanguinetti

We present the elliptical processes -- a family of non-parametric probabilistic models that subsumes the Gaussian process and the Student-t process. This generalization includes a range of new fat-tailed behaviors yet retains computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-03 Maria Bånkestad , Jens Sjölund , Jalil Taghia , Thomas Schön

Gaussian process regression is a frequently used statistical method for flexible yet fully probabilistic non-linear regression modeling. A common obstacle is its computational complexity which scales poorly with the number of observations.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Adam Gorm Hoffmann , Claus Thorn Ekstrøm , Andreas Kryger Jensen

Algorithms for Gaussian process, marginal likelihood methods or restricted maximum likelihood methods often require derivatives of log determinant terms. These log determinants are usually parametric with variance parameters of the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Shengxin Zhu , Andrew J Wathen

We use rescaled Gaussian processes as prior models for functional parameters in nonparametric statistical models. We show how the rate of contraction of the posterior distributions depends on the scaling factor. In particular, we exhibit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Aad van der Vaart , Harry van Zanten

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-01 Yarin Gal , Mark van der Wilk , Carl E. Rasmussen

The central limit theorem ensures that a sum of random variables tends to a Gaussian distribution as their total number tends to infinity. However, for a class of positive random variables, we find that the sum tends faster to a log-normal…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2013-10-16 H. Mouri

As Gaussian processes are used to answer increasingly complex questions, analytic solutions become scarcer and scarcer. Monte Carlo methods act as a convenient bridge for connecting intractable mathematical expressions with actionable…

In Bayesian nonparametric models, Gaussian processes provide a popular prior choice for regression function estimation. Existing literature on the theoretical investigation of the resulting posterior distribution almost exclusively assume a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-06 Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya , Guang Cheng

We prove a new variant of comparison principle for logarithmic $L_2$-small ball probabilities of Gaussian processes. As an application, we obtain logarithmic small ball asymptotics for some well-known processes with smooth covariances.

Probability · Mathematics 2008-05-14 A. I. Nazarov

Gaussian processes constitute a very powerful and well-understood method for non-parametric regression and classification. In the classical framework, the training data consists of deterministic vector-valued inputs and the corresponding…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-09-26 Maxim Dolgov , Uwe D. Hanebeck

The logarithmic derivative of a point process plays a key role in the general approach, due to the third author, to constructing diffusions preserving a given point process. In this paper we explicitly compute the logarithmic derivative for…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-07 Alexander I. Bufetov , Andrey V. Dymov , Hirofumi Osada

We generate the fractional Poisson process by subordinating the standard Poisson process to the inverse stable subordinator. Our analysis is based on application of the Laplace transform with respect to both arguments of the evolving…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-24 Rudolf Gorenflo , Francesco Mainardi

We study the problem of non-parametric Bayesian estimation of the intensity function of a Poisson point process. The observations are $n$ independent realisations of a Poisson point process on the interval $[0,T]$. We propose two related…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-31 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

In this article we use a covariance function that arises from limit of fluctuations of the rescaled occupation time process of a branching particle system, to introduce a family of weighted long-range dependence Gaussian processes. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-14 Jose Hermenegildo Ramirez Gonzalez , Antonio Murillo Salas , Ying Sun