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We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Thom Badings , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Ufuk Topcu , Nils Jansen

Estimating the unknown density from which a given independent sample originates is more difficult than estimating the mean, in the sense that for the best popular non-parametric density estimators, the mean integrated square error converges…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-08 Pierre L'Ecuyer , Florian Puchhammer , Amal Ben Abdellah

Sensitivity analysis measures the influence of a Bayesian network's parameters on a quantity of interest defined by the network, such as the probability of a variable taking a specific value. In particular, the so-called sensitivity value…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Rafael Ballester-Ripoll , Manuele Leonelli

This paper is a broad and accessible survey of the methods we have at our disposal for Monte Carlo gradient estimation in machine learning and across the statistical sciences: the problem of computing the gradient of an expectation of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-30 Shakir Mohamed , Mihaela Rosca , Michael Figurnov , Andriy Mnih

Variational logistic regression is a popular method for approximate Bayesian inference seeing wide-spread use in many areas of machine learning including: Bayesian optimization, reinforcement learning and multi-instance learning to name a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-14 Michael Komodromos , Marina Evangelou , Sarah Filippi

Network data arises through observation of relational information between a collection of entities. Recent work in the literature has independently considered when (i) one observes a sample of networks, connectome data in neuroscience being…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 George Bolt , Simón Lunagómez , Christopher Nemeth

This paper proposes a new probabilistic classification algorithm using a Markov random field approach. The joint distribution of class labels is explicitly modelled using the distances between feature vectors. Intuitively, a class label…

Computation · Statistics 2010-06-02 Nial Friel , Anthony N. Pettitt

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are often deemed too computationally intensive to be of any practical use for big data applications, and in particular for inference on datasets containing a large number $n$ of individual data points, also…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-13 Rémi Bardenet , Arnaud Doucet , Chris Holmes

We consider the problem of quantum phase estimation with access to arbitrary measurements in a single suboptimal basis. The achievable sensitivity limit in this case is determined by the classical Cram\'{e}r-Rao bound with respect to the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-09-19 Manuel Gessner

The variance-based method of global sensitivity indices based on Sobol sensitivity indices became very popular among practitioners due to its easiness of interpretation. For complex practical problems computation of Sobol indices generally…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-03 Sergei Kucherenko , Shufang Song

Following up on the success of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition and the Sobol indices (SI) for global sensitivity analysis, various related quantities of interest have been defined in the literature including the effective and…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2017-12-06 Rafael Ballester-Ripoll , Enrique G. Paredes , Renato Pajarola

In various disordered systems or non-equilibrium dynamical models, the large deviations of some observables have been found to display different scalings for rare values bigger or smaller than the typical value. In the present paper, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-05-12 Cecile Monthus

We study probit regression from a Bayesian perspective and give an alternative form for the posterior distribution when the prior distribution for the regression parameters is the uniform distribution. This new form allows simple Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-15 Yuzo Maruyama , William E. Strawderman

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-29 Xinzhu Liang , Shangda Yang , Simon L. Cotter , Kody J. H. Law

A new test of normality based on a standardised empirical process is introduced in this article. The first step is to introduce a Cram\'er-von Mises type statistic with weights equal to the inverse of the standard normal density function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-22 Juan Kalemkerian

We study an unbiased estimator for the density of a sum of random variables that are simulated from a computer model. A numerical study on examples with copula dependence is conducted where the proposed estimator performs favourably in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-19 Patrick J. Laub , Robert Salomone , Zdravko I. Botev

A number of complexity measures for Boolean functions have previously been introduced. These include (1) sensitivity, (2) block sensitivity, (3) witness complexity, (4) subcube partition complexity and (5) algorithmic complexity. Each of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Laurin Köhler-Schindler , Jeffrey E. Steif

We study the hunting process for a target, in which the hunter tracks the goal by smelling odors it emits. The odor intensity is supposed to decrease with the distance it diffuses. The Monte Carlo experiment is carried out on a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Shi-Jie Yang

In the field of computer experiments sensitivity analysis aims at quantifying the relative importance of each input parameter (or combinations thereof) of a computational model with respect to the model output uncertainty. Variance…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-23 Bruno Sudret , Chu Van Mai

This paper proposes an empirical method to implement the recentered influence function (RIF) regression of Firpo, Fortin and Lemieux (2009), a relevant method to study the effect of covariates on many statistics beyond the mean. In…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-03 Javier Alejo , Gabriel Montes-Rojas , Walter Sosa-Escudero