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Mean-field variational inference is a method for approximate Bayesian posterior inference. It approximates a full posterior distribution with a factorized set of distributions by maximizing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood. This…
Reliably characterizing the full conditional distribution of a multivariate response variable given a set of covariates is crucial for trustworthy decision-making. However, misspecified or miscalibrated multivariate models may yield a poor…
We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and…
Auto-encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB) is a powerful and general algorithm for fitting latent variable models (a promising direction for unsupervised learning), and is well-known for training the Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE). In this…
We propose a unified, yet simple to code, non-conjugate variational Bayes algorithm for posterior approximation of generic Bayesian generalized mixed effect models. Specifically, we consider regression models identified by a linear…
Inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs) are widely used in science and engineering. Although such problems are generally ill-posed, different regularisation approaches have been developed to ameliorate this problem.…
We propose a new method for multivariate response regression and covariance estimation when elements of the response vector are of mixed types, for example some continuous and some discrete. Our method is based on a model which assumes the…
The field of meta-learning seeks to improve the ability of today's machine learning systems to adapt efficiently to small amounts of data. Typically this is accomplished by training a system with a parametrized update rule to improve a…
We propose new methods for multivariate linear regression when the regression coefficient matrix is sparse and the error covariance matrix is dense. We assume that the error covariance matrix has equicorrelation across the response…
Continuous-time Bayesian networks is a natural structured representation language for multicomponent stochastic processes that evolve continuously over time. Despite the compact representation, inference in such models is intractable even…
Logistic regression involving high-dimensional covariates is a practically important problem. Often the goal is variable selection, i.e., determining which few of the many covariates are associated with the binary response. Unfortunately,…
We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…
The mean field variational Bayes (VB) algorithm implemented in Stan is relatively fast and efficient, making it feasible to produce model-estimated official statistics on a rapid timeline. Yet, while consistent point estimates of parameters…
To make decisions based on a model fit with auto-encoding variational Bayes (AEVB), practitioners often let the variational distribution serve as a surrogate for the posterior distribution. This approach yields biased estimates of the…
We introduce a nonparametric nonlinear VAR prewhitened long-run variance (LRV) estimator for the construction of standard errors robust to autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity that can be used for hypothesis testing in a variety of…
We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method…
The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…
In many practices, scientists are particularly interested in detecting which of the predictors are truly associated with a multivariate response. It is more accurate to model multiple responses as one vector rather than separating each…
Variational Bayes (VB) has become a widely-used tool for Bayesian inference in statistics and machine learning. Nonetheless, the development of the existing VB algorithms is so far generally restricted to the case where the variational…
Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to…