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Estimating causal effects in quasi-experiments with spatio-temporal panel data often requires adjusting for unmeasured confounding that varies across space and time. Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer a flexible, nonparametric modeling approach…
Tree ensemble methods such as random forests [Breiman, 2001] are very popular to handle high-dimensional tabular data sets, notably because of their good predictive accuracy. However, when machine learning is used for decision-making…
We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates…
In this paper, we explore the application of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting mean-reverting time series with an underlying structure, using relatively unexplored functional and augmented data structures. While many conventional…
Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for uncertainty-aware function approximation and sequential decision-making. Unfortunately, their classical formulation does not scale gracefully to large amounts of data and modern hardware for…
Multiple Classifier Systems (MCSs) allow evaluation of the uncertainty of classification outcomes that is of crucial importance for safety critical applications. The uncertainty of classification is determined by a trade-off between the…
Introducing inequality constraints in Gaussian process (GP) models can lead to more realistic uncertainties in learning a great variety of real-world problems. We consider the finite-dimensional Gaussian approach from Maatouk and Bay (2017)…
Random forest (Leo Breiman 2001a) (RF) is a non-parametric statistical method requiring no distributional assumptions on covariate relation to the response. RF is a robust, nonlinear technique that optimizes predictive accuracy by fitting…
We study graph estimation and density estimation in high dimensions, using a family of density estimators based on forest structured undirected graphical models. For density estimation, we do not assume the true distribution corresponds to…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian non-parametric models popular in a variety of applications due to their accuracy and native uncertainty quantification (UQ). Tuning GP hyperparameters is critical to ensure the validity of prediction…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a Bayesian nonparametric method for regression and interpolation, offering a principled way of quantifying the uncertainties of predicted function values. For the quantified uncertainties to be…
This paper shows that gradient boosting based on symmetric decision trees can be equivalently reformulated as a kernel method that converges to the solution of a certain Kernel Ridge Regression problem. Thus, we obtain the convergence to a…
Bayesian inference is now a leading technique for reconstructing phylogenetic trees from aligned sequence data. In this short note, we formally show that the maximum posterior tree topology provides a statistically consistent estimate of a…
Bayesian nonparametric regression under a rescaled Gaussian process prior offers smoothness-adaptive function estimation with near minimax-optimal error rates. Hierarchical extensions of this approach, equipped with stochastic variable…
Data analysis and machine learning have become an integrative part of the modern scientific methodology, offering automated procedures for the prediction of a phenomenon based on past observations, unraveling underlying patterns in data and…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used metamodels for approximating expensive computer simulations, particularly in engineering design and spatial prediction. However, their performance can deteriorate significantly when covariance…
Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) are hugely popular for solving tabular data problems. However, practitioners are not only interested in point predictions, but also in probabilistic predictions in order to quantify the uncertainty of the…
A broad class of stochastic volatility models are defined by systems of stochastic differential equations. While these models have seen widespread success in domains such as finance and statistical climatology, they typically lack an…
Gaussian processes (GPs) provide flexible distributions over functions, with inductive biases controlled by a kernel. However, in many applications Gaussian processes can struggle with even moderate input dimensionality. Learning a low…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful probabilistic modeling technique with built-in uncertainty quantification. When one has access to multiple correlated simulations (tasks), it is common to fit a multitask GP (MTGP) surrogate…