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In this paper we extend existing Bayesian methods for variable selection in Gaussian process regression, to select both the regression terms and the active covariates in the spatial correlation structure. We then use the estimated posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-05 Ofir Harari , David M. Steinberg

A novel numerical method for the estimation of large time-varying parameter (TVP) models is proposed. The updating and smoothing estimates of the TVP model are derived within the context of generalised linear least squares and through…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-23 Stella Hadjiantoni , Erricos J. Kontoghiorghes

This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-01 Danil Kuzin , Olga Isupova , Lyudmila Mihaylova

This work develops a block aggregation approach to spatial estimation and prediction when the response is observed at a coarse spatial scale, for example as counts of events in administrative areas, or blocks, while covariates are available…

Covariate adaptive randomization (CAR) procedures are extensively used to reduce the likelihood of covariate imbalances occurring in clinical trials. In literatures, a lot of CAR procedures have been proposed so that the specified…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Zhang Li-Xin

The normalizing constant plays an important role in Bayesian computation, and there is a large literature on methods for computing or approximating normalizing constants that cannot be evaluated in closed form. When the normalizing constant…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-02 Yuling Yao , Collin Cademartori , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

As a non-parametric Bayesian model which produces informative predictive distribution, Gaussian process (GP) has been widely used in various fields, like regression, classification and optimization. The cubic complexity of standard GP…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-06 Haitao Liu , Jianfei Cai , Yew-Soon Ong , Yi Wang

Stochastic parameterisations deployed in models of the Earth system frequently invoke locality assumptions such as Markovianity or spatial locality. This work highlights the impact of such assumptions on predictive performance. Both in…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Martin T. Brolly

Scalable Gaussian process (GP) inference is essential for sequential decision-making tasks, yet improving GP scalability remains a challenging problem with many open avenues of research. This paper focuses on iterative GPs, where iterative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Alan Yufei Dong , Jihao Andreas Lin , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

The modeling of high-dimensional spatio-temporal processes presents a fundamental dichotomy between the probabilistic rigor of classical geostatistics and the flexible, high-capacity representations of deep learning. While Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Yuri Calleo

We consider a modification of the covariance function in Gaussian processes to correctly account for known linear constraints. By modelling the target function as a transformation of an underlying function, the constraints are explicitly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-20 Carl Jidling , Niklas Wahlström , Adrian Wills , Thomas B. Schön

Multivariate spatial fields are of interest in many applications, including climate model emulation. Not only can the marginal spatial fields be subject to nonstationarity, but the dependence structure among the marginal fields and between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Paul F. V. Wiemann , Matthias Katzfuss

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-01 Yarin Gal , Mark van der Wilk , Carl E. Rasmussen

The specification of a covariance function is of paramount importance when employing Gaussian process models, but the requirement of positive definiteness severely limits those used in practice. Designing flexible stationary covariance…

Computation · Statistics 2024-05-01 Paul G. Beckman , Christopher J. Geoga

Although extensive research exists in spatial modeling, few studies have addressed finite mixture model-based clustering methods for spatial data. Finite mixture models, especially Gaussian mixture models, particularly suffer from high…

Modeling and inferring spatial relationships and predicting missing values of environmental data are some of the main tasks of geospatial statisticians. These routine tasks are accomplished using multivariate geospatial models and the…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2021-04-06 Mary Lai O. Salvaña , Sameh Abdulah , Huang Huang , Hatem Ltaief , Ying Sun , Marc G. Genton , David E. Keyes

Gaussian graphical models are of great interest in statistical learning. Because the conditional independencies between different nodes correspond to zero entries in the inverse covariance matrix of the Gaussian distribution, one can learn…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-11-02 Katya Scheinberg , Shiqian Ma , Donald Goldfarb

This paper presents a new method for spatially adaptive local (constant) likelihood estimation which applies to a broad class of nonparametric models, including the Gaussian, Poisson and binary response models. The main idea of the method…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-12-18 Denis Belomestny , Vladimir Spokoiny

Centered Gaussian random fields (GRFs) indexed by compacta such as smooth, bounded Euclidean domains or smooth, compact and orientable manifolds are determined by their covariance operators. We consider centered GRFs given as variational…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-09 Helmut Harbrecht , Lukas Herrmann , Kristin Kirchner , Christoph Schwab

We present a novel Bayesian spatial disaggregation model for count data, providing fast and flexible inference at high resolution. First, it incorporates non-linear covariate effects using penalized splines, a flexible approach that is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Sara Rutten , Thomas Neyens , Elisa Duarte , Christel Faes