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In this article we propose a novel MCMC method based on deterministic transformations T: X x D --> X where X is the state-space and D is some set which may or may not be a subset of X. We refer to our new methodology as Transformation-based…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-21 Somak Dutta , Sourabh Bhattacharya

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-13 Richard G. Everitt , Dennis Prangle , Philip Maybank , Mark Bell

We consider the recently introduced Transformation-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) (Dutta and Bhattacharya (2014)), a methodology that is designed to update all the parameters simultaneously using some simple deterministic…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-24 Kushal Kumar Dey , Sourabh Bhattacharya

We prove a bound on the finite sample error of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) on static spaces using the $L_2$ distance between interpolating distributions and the mixing times of Markov kernels. This result is unique in that it is the first…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-26 Joe Marion , Joseph Mathews , Scott C. Schmidler

Bayesian filtering aims at tracking sequentially a hidden process from an observed one. In particular, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques propagate in time weighted trajectories which represent the posterior probability density…

Computation · Statistics 2012-10-22 Yohan Petetin , François Desbouvries

We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Nando de Freitas , Pedro Hojen-Sorensen , Michael I. Jordan , Stuart Russell

Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) is a class of MCMC algorithms where the proposal distribution changes at every iteration of the chain. In this case it is important to verify that such a Markov Chain indeed has a stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-07 Gopal K. Basak , Arunangshu Biswas

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to Bayesian experimental design for non-exchangeable data that formulates it as risk-sensitive policy optimization. We develop the Inside-Out SMC$^2$ algorithm, a nested sequential Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-30 Sahel Iqbal , Adrien Corenflos , Simo Särkkä , Hany Abdulsamad

Probabilistic models are conceptually powerful tools for finding structure in data, but their practical effectiveness is often limited by our ability to perform inference in them. Exact inference is frequently intractable, so approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2014-07-25 Robert Nishihara , Iain Murray , Ryan P. Adams

This paper addresses the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions. In particular, we have considered a recently proposed technique known as population Monte Carlo (PMC), which is based on an iterative…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-03 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquín Míguez

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 David Gunawan , Chris Carter , Robert Kohn

Bayesian analysis is widely used in science and engineering for real-time forecasting, decision making, and to help unravel the processes that explain the observed data. These data are some deterministic and/or stochastic transformations of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-02-24 Jiangjiang Zhang , Jasper A. Vrugt , Xiaoqing Shi , Guang Lin , Lingzao Zeng , Laosheng Wu

We present an original simulation-based method to estimate likelihood ratios efficiently for general state-space models. Our method relies on a novel use of the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) algorithm introduced in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-10 Sinan Yıldırım , Christophe Andrieu , Arnaud Doucet

We prove bounds on the variance of a function $f$ under the empirical measure of the samples obtained by the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm, with time complexity depending on local rather than global Markov chain mixing dynamics.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-18 Holden Lee , Matheau Santana-Gijzen

We propose a global optimization algorithm based on the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling framework. In this framework, the objective function is normalized to be a probabilistic density function (pdf), based on which a sequence of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-15 Bin Liu

This paper concerns the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC) for smoothing in general state space models. A well-known problem when applying the standard SMC technique in the smoothing mode is that the resampling mechanism introduces…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-03-06 Jimmy Olsson , Olivier Cappé , Randal Douc , Eric Moulines

Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-09-06 N. T. Hunt-Smith , W. Melnitchouk , F. Ringer , N. Sato , A. W Thomas , M. J. White

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a premier Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for continuous target distributions. Its full potential can only be unleashed when its problem-dependent hyperparameters are tuned well. The adaptation of…

Computation · Statistics 2022-05-10 Pavel Sountsov , Matt D. Hoffman

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-08 Brendan D. Tracey , David H. Wolpert