Related papers: Mixing Time Estimation in Reversible Markov Chains…
We study one-sided and $\alpha$-correct sequential hypothesis testing for data generated by an ergodic Markov chain. The null hypothesis is that the unknown transition matrix belongs to a prescribed set $P$ of stochastic matrices, and the…
In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…
Approximating the stationary probability of a state in a Markov chain through Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques is, in general, inefficient. Standard random walk approaches require $\tilde{O}(\tau/\pi(v))$ operations to approximate the…
We consider the problem of estimating from sample paths the absolute spectral gap $\gamma_*$ of a reversible, irreducible and aperiodic Markov chain $(X_t)_{t \in \mathbb{N}}$ over a finite state space $\Omega$. We propose the ${\tt UCPI}$…
Markov state modeling has gained popularity in various scientific fields since it reduces complex time-series data sets into transitions between a few states. Yet common Markov state modeling frameworks assume a single Markov chain…
The problem of efficiently sampling from a set of(undirected) graphs with a given degree sequence has many applications. One approach to this problem uses a simple Markov chain, which we call the switch chain, to perform the sampling. The…
Based on information theory, we present a method to determine an optimal Markov approximation for modelling and prediction from time series data. The method finds a balance between minimal modelling errors by taking as much as possible…
We present an algorithm for learning mixtures of Markov chains and Markov decision processes (MDPs) from short unlabeled trajectories. Specifically, our method handles mixtures of Markov chains with optional control input by going through a…
Using concentration inequalities, we give non-asymptotic confidence intervals for estimates obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, when using the approximation $\mathbb{E}_{\pi} f\approx (1/(N-t_0))\cdot \sum_{i=t_0+1}^N…
We show that efficient approximate sampling algorithms, combined with a slow exponential time oracle for computing its output distribution, can be combined into constructing efficient perfect samplers, which sample exactly from a target…
We prove new upper and lower bounds for sample complexity of finding an $\epsilon$-optimal policy of an infinite-horizon average-reward Markov decision process (MDP) given access to a generative model. When the mixing time of the…
We consider a Markov chain on invertible $n\times n$ matrices with entries in $\mathbb{Z}_2$ which moves by picking an ordered pair of distinct rows and add the first one to the other, modulo $2$. We establish a logarithmic Sobolev…
We establish non-asymptotic error bounds for the classical Maximal Likelihood Estimation of the transition matrix of a given Markov chain. Meanwhile, in the reversible case, we propose a new reversibility-preserving online Symmetric…
For general spin systems, we prove that a contractive coupling for any local Markov chain implies optimal bounds on the mixing time and the modified log-Sobolev constant for a large class of Markov chains including the Glauber dynamics,…
We prove that any Markov chain that performs local, reversible updates on randomly chosen vertices of a bounded-degree graph necessarily has mixing time at least $\Omega(n\log n)$, where $n$ is the number of vertices. Our bound applies to…
Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…
The approximate uniform sampling of graph realizations with a given degree sequence is an everyday task in several social science, computer science, engineering etc. projects. One approach is using Markov chains. The best available current…
Convergence analysis of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in high-dimensional statistical applications is increasingly recognized. In this paper, we develop general mixing time bounds for Metropolis-Hastings algorithms on discrete spaces by…
The mixing time of a Markov chain determines how fast the iterates of the Markov chain converge to the stationary distribution; however, it does not control the dependencies between samples along the Markov chain. In this paper, we study…
This paper introduces a concept of approximate spectral gap to analyze the mixing time of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for which the usual spectral gap is degenerate or almost degenerate. We use the idea to analyze a class of…