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Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Longyuan Li , Junchi Yan , Xiaokang Yang , Yaohui Jin

This study introduces Variational Automatic Relevance Determination (VARD), a novel approach tailored for fitting sparse additive regression models in high-dimensional settings. VARD distinguishes itself by its ability to independently…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-04 Zihe Liu , Diptarka Saha , Feng Liang

We propose Network Automatic Relevance Determination (NARD), an extension of ARD for linearly probabilistic models, to simultaneously model sparse relationships between inputs $X \in \mathbb R^{d \times N}$ and outputs $Y \in \mathbb R^{m…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Hongwei Zhang , Ziqi Ye , Xinyuan Wang , Xin Guo , Zenglin Xu , Yuan Cheng , Zixin Hu , Yuan Qi

We develop nested automatic differentiation (AD) algorithms for exact inference and learning in integer latent variable models. Recently, Winner, Sujono, and Sheldon showed how to reduce marginalization in a class of integer latent variable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-11 Daniel Sheldon , Kevin Winner , Debora Sujono

This work considers methods for imposing sparsity in Bayesian regression with applications in nonlinear system identification. We first review automatic relevance determination (ARD) and analytically demonstrate the need to additional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Samuel H. Rudy , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic model with automatic relevance determination (ARD) for learning interpolative decomposition (ID), which is commonly used for low-rank approximation, feature selection, and identifying hidden…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-30 Jun Lu

The successes of deep learning, variational inference, and many other fields have been aided by specialized implementations of reverse-mode automatic differentiation (AD) to compute gradients of mega-dimensional objectives. The AD…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Deniz Oktay , Nick McGreivy , Joshua Aduol , Alex Beatson , Ryan P. Adams

Credit risk modelling is an integral part of the global financial system. While there has been great attention paid to neural network models for credit default prediction, such models often lack the required interpretation mechanisms and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-18 Rendani Mbuvha , Illyes Boulkaibet , Tshilidzi Marwala

We study the Automatic Relevance Determination procedure applied to deep neural networks. We show that ARD applied to Bayesian DNNs with Gaussian approximate posterior distributions leads to a variational bound similar to that of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-29 Valery Kharitonov , Dmitry Molchanov , Dmitry Vetrov

Sparse recovery in linear systems underpins applications from signal processing to high-dimensional regression. Sparse Bayesian Learning, grounded in the principle of automatic relevance determination (ARD), offers a practical Bayesian…

This study introduces a novel approach for inferring social network structures using Aggregate Relational Data (ARD), addressing the challenge of limited detailed network data availability. By integrating ARD with variational approximation…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-04 Xunkang Tian

In the context of Gaussian process regression with functional inputs, it is common to treat the input as a vector. The parameter space becomes prohibitively complex as the number of functional points increases, effectively becoming a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-02 Luis Damiano , Margaret Johnson , Joaquim Teixeira , Max D. Morris , Jarad Niemi

Specifying utility functions is a key step towards applying the discrete choice framework for understanding the behaviour processes that govern user choices. However, identifying the utility function specifications that best model and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-11 Filipe Rodrigues , Nicola Ortelli , Michel Bierlaire , Francisco Pereira

Deep neural networks (DNN) have been used successfully in many scientific problems for their high prediction accuracy, but their application to genetic studies remains challenging due to their poor interpretability. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-01 Peyman H. Kassani , Fred Lu , Yann Le Guen , Zihuai He

Automatic Differentiation (AD) allows to determine exactly the Taylor series of any function truncated at any order. Here we propose to use AD techniques for Monte Carlo data analysis. We discuss how to estimate errors of a general function…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2019-02-07 Alberto Ramos

In many problem settings, parameter vectors are not merely sparse but dependent in such a way that non-zero coefficients tend to cluster together. We refer to this form of dependency as "region sparsity." Classical sparse regression…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-28 Anqi Wu , Oluwasanmi Koyejo , Jonathan W. Pillow

Automatic differentiation (AD) has driven recent advances in machine learning, including deep neural networks and Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Partially observed nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems have proved resistant…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-04 Kevin Tan , Giles Hooker , Edward L. Ionides

Variational Autoencoders are powerful models for unsupervised learning. However deep models with several layers of dependent stochastic variables are difficult to train which limits the improvements obtained using these highly expressive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-30 Casper Kaae Sønderby , Tapani Raiko , Lars Maaløe , Søren Kaae Sønderby , Ole Winther

Deep learning provides accurate collaborative filtering models to improve recommender system results. Deep matrix factorization and their related collaborative neural networks are the state-of-art in the field; nevertheless, both models…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-07-28 Jesús Bobadilla , Fernando Ortega , Abraham Gutiérrez , Ángel González-Prieto

Disfluency detection is a critical task in real-time dialogue systems. However, despite its importance, it remains a relatively unexplored field, mainly due to the lack of appropriate datasets. At the same time, existing datasets suffer…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-04 T. Passali , T. Mavropoulos , G. Tsoumakas , G. Meditskos , S. Vrochidis
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