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We present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-16 Yibo Yang , Paris Perdikaris

The problem we consider is a multi-objective optimization problem, in which the goal is to find an optimal value of a vector function representing various criteria. The aim of this work is to develop an algorithm which utilizes the trust…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Nataša Krejić , Nataša Krklec Jerinkić , Luka Rutešić

Motivation: The mapping of RNA-seq reads to their transcripts of origin is a fundamental task in transcript expression estimation and differential expression scoring. Where ambiguities in mapping exist due to transcripts sharing sequence,…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2015-01-28 James Hensman , Peter Glaus , Antti Honkela , Magnus Rattray

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-23 James McInerney , Rajesh Ranganath , David M. Blei

In structured additive distributional regression, the conditional distribution of the response variables given the covariate information and the vector of model parameters is modelled using a P-parametric probability density function where…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-06 Gianmarco Callegher , Thomas Kneib , Johannes Söding , Paul Wiemann

Hierarchical models with gamma hyperpriors provide a flexible, sparse-promoting framework to bridge $L^1$ and $L^2$ regularizations in Bayesian formulations to inverse problems. Despite the Bayesian motivation for these models, existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Shiv Agrawal , Hwanwoo Kim , Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Alexander Strang

A variational inference-based framework for training a multi-output Gaussian process latent variable model, specifically tailored to the tails-up spatio-temporal stream network, is developed. Training, given a censored observational data…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Marno Basson , Tobias M. Louw , Theresa R. Smith

We develop a stochastic trust-region algorithm for minimizing the sum of a possibly nonconvex Lipschitz-smooth function that can only be evaluated stochastically and a nonsmooth, deterministic, convex function. This algorithm, which we call…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-06 Robert J. Baraldi , Aurya Javeed , Drew P. Kouri , Katya Scheinberg

Under data distributions which may be heavy-tailed, many stochastic gradient-based learning algorithms are driven by feedback queried at points with almost no performance guarantees on their own. Here we explore a modified "anytime…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-01 Matthew J. Holland

We consider the solution of finite-sum minimization problems, such as those appearing in nonlinear least-squares or general empirical risk minimization problems. We are motivated by problems in which the summand functions are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-21 Matt Menickelly , Stefan M. Wild

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

In this paper, we address the problem of conducting statistical inference in settings involving large-scale data that may be high-dimensional and contaminated by outliers. The high volume and dimensionality of the data require distributed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-30 Emadaldin Mozafari-Majd , Visa Koivunen

We introduce local expectation gradients which is a general purpose stochastic variational inference algorithm for constructing stochastic gradients through sampling from the variational distribution. This algorithm divides the problem of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-06 Michalis K. Titsias

Bayesian optimization is popular for optimizing time-consuming black-box objectives. Nonetheless, for hyperparameter tuning in deep neural networks, the time required to evaluate the validation error for even a few hyperparameter settings…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-13 Jian Wu , Saul Toscano-Palmerin , Peter I. Frazier , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Bayesian parameter inference for complex stochastic simulators is challenging due to intractable likelihood functions. Existing simulation-based inference methods often require large number of simulations and become costly to use in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Vasilis Gkolemis , Christos Diou , Michael U. Gutmann

A common problem in Machine Learning and statistics consists in detecting whether the current sample in a stream of data belongs to the same distribution as previous ones, is an isolated outlier or inaugurates a new distribution of data. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-16 Vincent Moens

We develop a new method of online inference for a vector of parameters estimated by the Polyak-Ruppert averaging procedure of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms. We leverage insights from time series regression in econometrics and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-09 Sokbae Lee , Yuan Liao , Myung Hwan Seo , Youngki Shin

Distributionally-robust optimization is often studied for a fixed set of distributions rather than time-varying distributions that can drift significantly over time (which is, for instance, the case in finance and sociology due to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-01 Iman Shames , Farhad Farokhi

We propose a scalable variational Bayes method for statistical inference for a single or low-dimensional subset of the coordinates of a high-dimensional parameter in sparse linear regression. Our approach relies on assigning a mean-field…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-12 Ismaël Castillo , Alice L'Huillier , Kolyan Ray , Luke Travis