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Related papers: Sufficient Forecasting Using Factor Models

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Financial scenario simulation is essential for risk management and portfolio optimization, yet it remains challenging especially in high-dimensional and small data settings common in finance. We propose a diffusion factor model that…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-13 Minshuo Chen , Renyuan Xu , Yumin Xu , Ruixun Zhang

Many real-world time series exhibit strong periodic structures arising from physical laws, human routines, or seasonal cycles. However, modern deep forecasting models often fail to capture these recurring patterns due to spectral bias and a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Menglin Kong , Vincent Zhihao Zheng , Lijun Sun

Multimodal data, where different types of data are collected from the same subjects, are fast emerging in a large variety of scientific applications. Factor analysis is commonly used in integrative analysis of multimodal data, and is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Quefeng Li , Lexin Li

This work is devoted to the finite sample prediction risk analysis of a class of linear predictors of a response $Y\in \mathbb{R}$ from a high-dimensional random vector $X\in \mathbb{R}^p$ when $(X,Y)$ follows a latent factor regression…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-26 Xin Bing , Florentina Bunea , Seth Strimas-Mackey , Marten Wegkamp

Sufficient dimension reduction aims for reduction of dimensionality of a regression without loss of information by replacing the original predictor with its lower-dimensional subspace. Partial (sufficient) dimension reduction arises when…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-27 Lu Li , Kai Tan , Xuerong Meggie Wen , Zhou Yu

Many machine learning applications deal with high dimensional data. To make computations feasible and learning more efficient, it is often desirable to reduce the dimensionality of the input variables by finding linear combinations of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-30 Wenjing Yang , Yuhong Yang

We consider supervised learning (regression/classification) problems with tensor-valued input. We derive multi-linear sufficient reductions for the regression or classification problem by modeling the conditional distribution of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-28 Daniel Kapla , Efstathia Bura

The factor modeling for high-dimensional time series is powerful in discovering latent common components for dimension reduction and information extraction. Most available estimation methods can be divided into two categories: the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Xinghao Qiao , Zihan Wang , Qiwei Yao , Bo Zhang

Tackling pattern recognition problems in areas such as computer vision, bioinformatics, speech or text recognition is often done best by taking into account task-specific statistical relations between output variables. In structured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-14 Rein Houthooft , Filip De Turck

Multistage stochastic programming provides a modeling framework for sequential decision-making problems that involve uncertainty. One typically overlooked aspect of this methodology is how uncertainty is incorporated into modeling.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-24 Juyoung Wang , Mucahit Cevik , Merve Bodur

This paper develops an inferential theory for high-dimensional matrix-variate factor models with missing observations. We propose an easy-to-use all-purpose method that involves two straightforward steps. First, we perform principal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Yongxia Zhang , Jinwen Liang , Liwen Xu , Keming Yu , Maozai Tian

The concepts of sparsity, and regularised estimation, have proven useful in many high-dimensional statistical applications. Dynamic factor models (DFMs) provide a parsimonious approach to modelling high-dimensional time series, however, it…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-22 Luke Mosley , Tak-Shing T. Chan , Alex Gibberd

Dimension reduction is often the first step in statistical modeling or prediction of multivariate spatial data. However, most existing dimension reduction techniques do not account for the spatial correlation between observations and do not…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-27 Si Cheng , Magali N. Blanco , Timothy V. Larson , Lianne Sheppard , Adam Szpiro , Ali Shojaie

Identifying the number of factors in a high-dimensional factor model has attracted much attention in recent years and a general solution to the problem is still lacking. A promising ratio estimator based on the singular values of the lagged…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-23 Zeng Li , Qinwen Wang , Jianfeng Yao

The principal support vector machines method (Li et al., 2011) is a powerful tool for sufficient dimension reduction that replaces original predictors with their low-dimensional linear combinations without loss of information. However, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-02 Jun Jin , Chao Ying , Zhou Yu

This paper proposes a new method and algorithm for predicting multivariate responses in a regression setting. Research into classification of High Dimension Low Sample Size (HDLSS) data, in particular microarray data, has made considerable…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-07-28 Inge Koch , Kanta Naito

We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-18 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

As a principled dimension reduction technique, factor models have been widely adopted in social science, economics, bioinformatics, and many other fields. However, in high-dimensional settings, conducting a 'correct' Bayesianfactor analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-05 Yucong Ma , Jun S. Liu

We propose a robust inferential procedure for assessing uncertainties of parameter estimation in high-dimensional linear models, where the dimension $p$ can grow exponentially fast with the sample size $n$. Our method combines the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-19 Tianqi Zhao , Mladen Kolar , Han Liu

Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-22 Yanfei Kang , Wei Cao , Fotios Petropoulos , Feng Li