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Off-policy evaluation provides an essential tool for evaluating the effects of different policies or treatments using only observed data. When applied to high-stakes scenarios such as medical diagnosis or financial decision-making, it is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Ziyang Tang , Yihao Feng , Na Zhang , Jian Peng , Qiang Liu

In this article, we derive an explicit formula for computing confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable. Moreover, we have developed multistage point estimation methods for estimating the mean value with prescribed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-29 Xinjia Chen

Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

The performance of the generalized belief propagation algorithm for computing the noiseless capacity and mutual information rates of finite-size two-dimensional and three-dimensional run-length limited constraints is investigated. For each…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-05-29 Giovanni Sabato , Mehdi Molkaraie

In this note we consider coverage of confidence intervals calculated with and without systematic uncertainties. These calculations follow the prescription originally proposed by Cousins & Highland but here extended to account for different…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 J. Conrad , O. Botner , A. Hallgren , C. P. de los Heros

We review some aspects of Bayesian and frequentist interval estimation, focusing first on their relative strengths and weaknesses when used in "clean" or "textbook" contexts. We then turn attention to observational-data situations which are…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-10-05 Paul Gustafson , Sander Greenland

We present a statistical test that can be used to verify supervisory requirements concerning overlapping time windows for the long-term calibration in rating systems. In a first step, we show that the long-run default rate is approximately…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-25 Patrick Kurth , Max Nendel , Jan Streicher

It is observed that for testing between simple hypotheses where the cost of Type I and Type II errors can be quantified, it is better to let the optimization choose the test size.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-05 Michele Pavon

Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in…

We explore and compare a variety of definitions for privacy and disclosure limitation in statistical estimation and data analysis, including (approximate) differential privacy, testing-based definitions of privacy, and posterior guarantees…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-16 Rina Foygel Barber , John C. Duchi

For estimating a lower bounded location or mean parameter for a symmetric and logconcave density, we investigate the frequentist performance of the $100(1-\alpha)%$ Bayesian HPD credible set associated with priors which are truncations of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-11-13 Éric Marchand , William E. Strawderman , Keven Bosa , Aziz Lmoudden

Estimating the difference between two binomial proportions will be investigated, where Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) methods will be considered. Three vague priors will be used, the Jeffreys prior, a divergence prior and the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-17 Lizanne Raubenheimer

A calculator program has been written to give confidence intervals on branching ratios for rare decay modes (or similar quantities) calculated from the number of events observed, the acceptance factor, the background estimate and the…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2011-07-19 Roger Barlow

In this paper, we propose several statistics for testing uniformity under progressive Type-I interval censoring. We obtain the critical points of these statistics and study the power of the proposed tests against a representative set of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-25 H. Nadeb , H. Torabi , G. G. Hamedani

We study the generation of prediction intervals in regression for uncertainty quantification. This task can be formalized as an empirical constrained optimization problem that minimizes the average interval width while maintaining the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-01 Haoxian Chen , Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Huajie Qian , Haofeng Zhang

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

In high energy physics, results from searches for new particles or rare processes are often reported using a modified frequentist approach, known as $\rm{CL_s}$ method. In this paper, we study the properties of the derivatives of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-11-22 Miriam Lucio Martínez , Diego Martínez Santos , Francesco Dettori

This paper considers the computer model calibration problem and provides a general frequentist solution. Under the proposed framework, the data model is semi-parametric with a nonparametric discrepancy function which accounts for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-14 Raymond K. W. Wong , Curtis B. Storlie , Thomas C. M. Lee

Confidence intervals are central to statistical inference as a tool to evaluate the type I error risk at a given significance level. We devise a method to construct confidence intervals using a single run of a permutation test. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Niels Lundtorp Olsen

In the recent paper [5], a Bayesian approach for constructing confidence intervals in monotone regression problems is proposed, based on credible intervals. We view this method from a frequentist point of view, and show that it corresponds…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Piet Groeneboom , Geurt Jongbloed