Related papers: Improved Component Predictions of Batting Measures
Batting average is one of the principle performance measures for an individual baseball player. It is natural to statistically model this as a binomial-variable proportion, with a given (observed) number of qualifying attempts (called…
Predicting batting averages for specific batters against specific pitchers is a challenging problem in baseball. Previous methods for estimating batting averages in these matchups have used regression models that can incorporate the…
We have developed a sophisticated statistical model for predicting the hitting performance of Major League baseball players. The Bayesian paradigm provides a principled method for balancing past performance with crucial covariates, such as…
Each ballpark has a different size in baseball. It could be easily imagined that there would be many home runs in a small ballpark. Moreover, the environment of the ballpark, such as altitude, humidity, air pressure, and wind strength,…
Assessment of the performance of a player in any sport is very much needed to determine the ranking of players and make a solid team with the best players. Besides these, fans, journalists, sports persons, and sports councils often analyse…
Statistical analysis is a major aspect of baseball, from player averages to historical benchmarks and records. Much of baseball fanfare is based around players exceeding the norm, some in a single game and others over a long career. Career…
We present a tractable framework for detecting changes in performance metrics and apply these methods to Major League Baseball (MLB) batting and pitching data from the 2023 and 2024 seasons. We propose a changepoint detection algorithm that…
We introduce a three-step framework to determine at which pitches Major League batters should swing. Unlike traditional plate discipline metrics, which implicitly assume that all batters should always swing at (resp. take) pitches inside…
In Major League Baseball, every ballpark is different, with different dimensions and climates. These differences make some ballparks more conducive to hitting home runs than others. Several factors conspire to make estimation of these…
Though athletics statistics are abundant, it is a difficult task to quantitatively compare performances from different events of track, field, and road running in a meaningful way. There are several commonly-used methods, but each has its…
Numerous statistics have been proposed for the measure of offensive ability in major league baseball. While some of these measures may offer moderate predictive power in certain situations, it is unclear which simple offensive metrics are…
In Major League Baseball, strategy and planning are major factors in determining the outcome of a game. Previous studies have aided this by building machine learning models for predicting the winning team of any given game. We extend this…
In 2024, Major League Baseball released new bat tracking data, reporting swing-by-swing bat speed and swing length measured at the point of contact. While exciting, the data present challenges for their interpretation. The timing of the…
In baseball games, the coefficient of restitution of baseballs strongly affects the flying distance of batted balls, which determines the home-run probability. In Japan, the range of the coefficient of restitution of official baseballs has…
We suppose that performance is a random variable whose expectation is related to training inputs, and we study four performance measures in a statistical model that relates performance to training. Our aim is to carry out a robust…
In most popular sports leagues, like the MLB, NBA, and NFL, none of the commonly used statistics take into account the strengths of the opponents a player faces. One of the main reasons for this is the conventional belief that a player's…
We investigate the performance and sampling variability of estimated forecast combinations, with particular attention given to the combination of forecast distributions. Unknown parameters in the forecast combination are optimized according…
Baseball is a game of strategic decisions including bullpen usage, pinch-hitting and intentional walks. Managers must adjust their strategies based on the changing state of the game in order to give their team the best chance of winning. In…
Recent measurement technologies enable us to analyze baseball at higher levels. There are, however, still many unclear points around the pitching strategy. The two elements make it difficult to measure the effect of pitching strategy.…
We present a framework to formally describe probabilistic system behavior and symbolically reason about it. In particular we aim at reasoning about possible failures and fault tolerance. We regard systems which are composed of different…