Related papers: The extremogram and the cross-extremogram for a bi…
A new multivariate integer-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic process based on a multivariate Poisson generalized inverse Gaussian distribution is proposed. The estimation of parameters of the proposed…
We introduce a statistical model for operational losses based on heavy-tailed distributions and bipartite graphs, which captures the event type and business line structure of operational risk data. The model explicitly takes into account…
Detecting anomalies in a temporal sequence of graphs can be applied is areas such as the detection of accidents in transport networks and cyber attacks in computer networks. Existing methods for detecting abnormal graphs can suffer from…
In this article, by using composite asymmetric least squares (CALS) and empirical likelihood, we propose a two-step procedure to estimate the conditional value at risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES) for the GARCH series.…
Yin, Rinaldo, and Fadnavis classified the extremal behavior of the edge-triangle exponential random graph model by first taking the network size to infinity, then the parameters diverging to infinity along straight lines. Lubetzky and Zhao…
In this paper we consider the problem of a measure that allows us to describe the spatial and temporal dependence structure of multivariate time series with innovations having infinite variance. By using recent results obtained in the…
For a strictly stationary sequence of $\mathbb{R}_{+}^{d}$--valued random vectors we derive functional convergence of partial maxima stochastic processes under joint regular variation and weak dependence conditions. The limit process is an…
We investigate the extremal process of four-dimensional membrane models as the size of the lattice $N$ tends to infinity. We prove the cluster-like geometry of the extreme points and the existence as well as the uniqueness of the extremal…
Accurately identifying the extremal dependence structure in multivariate heavy-tailed data is a fundamental yet challenging task, particularly in financial applications. Following a recently proposed bootstrap-based testing procedure, we…
In this paper we propose a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the bulk part below threshold and a generalized Pareto density in the tail for extreme value estimation. The proposed model is simple and flexible…
The modelling of multivariate extreme events is important in a wide variety of applications, including flood risk analysis, metocean engineering and financial modelling. A wide variety of statistical techniques have been proposed in the…
We provide large deviations estimates for the upper tail of the number of triangles in scale-free inhomogeneous random graphs where the degrees have power law tails with index $-\alpha, \alpha \in (1,2)$. We show that upper tail…
We consider a class of M-estimators of the parameters of a GARCH (p,q) model. These estimators involve score functions and, for adequate choices of the score functions, are asymptotically normal under milder moment assumptions than the…
In this paper, we characterize the extremal dependence of $d$ asymptotically dependent variables by a class of random vectors on the $(d-1)$-dimensional hyperplane perpendicular to the diagonal vector $\mathbf1=(1,\ldots,1)$. This…
We prove tail estimates for variables $\sum_i f(X_i)$, where $(X_i)_i$ is the trajectory of a random walk on an undirected graph (or, equivalently, a reversible Markov chain). The estimates are in terms of the maximum of the function $f$,…
We study the one-dimensional branching random walk in the case when the step size distribution has a stretched exponential tail, and, in particular, no finite exponential moments. The tail of the step size $X$ decays as $\mathbb{P}[X \geq…
The binomial random bipartite graph $G(n,n,p)$ is the random graph formed by taking two partition classes of size $n$ and including each edge between them independently with probability $p$. It is known that this model exhibits a similar…
The risk of catastrophes is related to the possibility of occurring extreme values. Several statistical methodologies have been developed in order to evaluate the propensity of a process for the occurrence of high values and the permanence…
SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…
To consider a high-dimensional random process, we propose a notion about stochastic tensor-valued random process (TRP). In this work, we first attempt to apply a generic chaining method to derive tail bounds for all p-th moments of the…