Related papers: A Hybrid Monte-Carlo Sampling Smoother for Four Di…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful tool for Bayesian statistical inference due to its potential to rapidly explore high dimensional state space, avoiding the random walk behavior typical of many Markov Chain Monte Carlo samplers.…

Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) has recently been proposed by Liang, Liu and Carroll [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305--320] as a general simulation and optimization algorithm. In this paper, we propose to improve its…

Data assimilation (DA) is a key component of many forecasting models in science and engineering. DA allows one to estimate better initial conditions using an imperfect dynamical model of the system and noisy/sparse observations available…

This paper concerns the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC) for smoothing in general state space models. A well-known problem when applying the standard SMC technique in the smoothing mode is that the resampling mechanism introduces…

We unify slice sampling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling, demonstrating their connection via the Hamiltonian-Jacobi equation from Hamiltonian mechanics. This insight enables extension of HMC and slice sampling to a broader family…

Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…

Approximate Thompson sampling with Langevin Monte Carlo broadens its reach from Gaussian posterior sampling to encompass more general smooth posteriors. However, it still encounters scalability issues in high-dimensional problems when…

Nonuniform subsampling methods are effective to reduce computational burden and maintain estimation efficiency for massive data. Existing methods mostly focus on subsampling with replacement due to its high computational efficiency. If the…

Ensemble smoother (ES) has been widely used in various research fields to reduce the uncertainty of the system-of-interest. However, the commonly-adopted ES method that employs the Kalman formula, that is, ES$_\text{(K)}$, does not perform…

A novel method, based on the combination of data assimilation and machine learning is introduced. The new hybrid approach is designed for a two-fold scope: (i) emulating hidden, possibly chaotic, dynamics and (ii) predicting their future…

We describe and analyze some Monte Carlo methods for manifolds in Euclidean space defined by equality and inequality constraints. First, we give an MCMC sampler for probability distributions defined by un-normalized densities on such…

In this paper we develop a data-driven smoothing technique for high-dimensional and non-linear panel data models. We allow for individual specific (non-linear) functions and estimation with econometric or machine learning methods by using…

Nested sampling is a powerful approach to Bayesian inference ultimately limited by the computationally demanding task of sampling from a heavily constrained probability distribution. An effective algorithm in its own right, Hamiltonian…

The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling algorithm exploits Hamiltonian dynamics to construct efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which has become increasingly popular in machine learning and statistics. Since HMC uses the gradient…

We propose a novel sampling-based federated learning framework for statistical inference on M-estimators with non-smooth objective functions, which frequently arise in modern statistical applications such as quantile regression and AUC…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…

Determinantal points processes are a promising but relatively under-developed tool in machine learning and statistical modelling, being the canonical statistical example of distributions with repulsion. While their mathematical formulation…

We report on what seems to be an intriguing connection between variable integration time and partial velocity refreshment of Ideal Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers, both of which can be used for reducing the dissipative behavior of the…

It was recently shown that path integral Monte Carlo can be used to directly compute partition functions of Hamiltonians with vibronic coupling [J. Chem. Phys. 148, 194110 (2018)]. While the importance sampling Monte Carlo integration…