Related papers: Bayesian inference for higher order ordinary diffe…
We present a Bayesian inference methodology for the estimation of orbital parameters on single-line spectroscopic binaries with astrometric data, based on the No-U-Turn sampler Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Our approach is designed to…
Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…
We consider the heat equation with absorption in a bounded domain of $\mathbb{R}^d$, where both the scalar diffusivity and the absorption function are unknown. We investigate a Bayesian approach for recovering the diffusivity from a noisy…
Sampling from the posterior is a key technical problem in Bayesian statistics. Rigorous guarantees are difficult to obtain for Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms of common use. In this paper, we study an alternative class of algorithms…
We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…
The Bernstein-von Mises theorem (BvM) gives conditions under which the posterior distribution of a parameter $\theta\in\Theta\subseteq\mathbb R^d$ based on $n$ independent samples is asymptotically normal. In the high-dimensional regime, a…
Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…
We consider a Bayesian approach for the recovery of scalar parameters arising in inverse problems. We consider a general signal-in white noise model where we have access to two independent noisy observations of a function, and of a linear…
This paper gives direct derivations of the differential equations and likelihood formulas of diffusion models assuming only knowledge of Gaussian distributions. A VAE analysis derives both forward and backward stochastic differential…
Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…
In this work we apply the methodology of integral priors to handle Bayesian model selection in binomial regression models with a general link function. These models are very often used to investigate associations and risks in…
Gibbs posteriors are proportional to a prior distribution multiplied by an exponentiated loss function, with a key tuning parameter weighting information in the loss relative to the prior and providing a control of posterior uncertainty.…
A Bernstein-von Mises theorem is derived for general semiparametric functionals. The result is applied to a variety of semiparametric problems in i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. situations. In particular, new tools are developed to handle…
A Bayesian method of moments/instrumental variable (BMOM/IV) approach is developed and applied in the analysis of the important mean and multiple regression models. Given a single set of data, it is shown how to obtain posterior and…
We use rescaled Gaussian processes as prior models for functional parameters in nonparametric statistical models. We show how the rate of contraction of the posterior distributions depends on the scaling factor. In particular, we exhibit…
Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are central to scientific modelling, but inferring their vector fields from noisy trajectories remains challenging. Current approaches such as symbolic regression, Gaussian process (GP) regression, and…
Variational Bayes (VB) has been used to facilitate the calculation of the posterior distribution in the context of Bayesian inference of the parameters of nonlinear models from data. Previously an analytical formulation of VB has been…
We consider the problem of estimation in Hidden Markov models with finite state space and nonparametric emission distributions. Efficient estimators for the transition matrix are exhibited, and a semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises result is…
Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (N-ODEs) are a powerful building block for learning systems, which extend residual networks to a continuous-time dynamical system. We propose a Bayesian version of N-ODEs that enables well-calibrated…
A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…