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In granular systems, thermal cycling causes compaction, creep, penetration of dense objects, and ratcheting of grains against each other. On asteroid surfaces, thermal cycling is high amplitude and can happen billions of times in a few…
Instabilities and strong dynamical interactions between several giant planets have been proposed as a possible explanation for the surprising orbital properties of extrasolar planetary systems. In particular, dynamical instabilities would…
We propose a conceptual model which generates abrupt climate changes akin to Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In the model these abrupt climate changes are not triggered by external perturbations but rather emerge in a dynamic self-consistent…
Equation of motion for a comet in the Oort cloud is numerically solved. Orbital evolution of the comet under the action of the gravity of the Sun and the Galaxy is presented for various initial conditions. Oscillations of the Sun with…
Real-world systems can be strongly influenced by time delays occurring in self-coupling interactions, due to unavoidable finite signal propagation velocities. When the delays become significantly long, complicated high-dimensional phenomena…
The cratering record on the Earth and Moon shows that our planet has been exposed to high velocity impacts for much or all of its existence. Some of these craters were produced by the impact of long period comets (LPCs). These probably…
External and internal factors may cause a system's parameter to vary with time before it stabilizes. This drift induces a regime shift when the parameter crosses a bifurcation. Here, we study the case of an infinite dimensional system: a…
In the long run, the eventual extinction of any biological population is an inevitable outcome. While extensive research has focused on the average time it takes for a population to go extinct under various circumstances, there has been…
The concordance model of cosmology predicts a universe which finishes in a finite amount of conformal time at a future conformal boundary. We show that for particular cases we study, the background variables and perturbations may be…
The variations of water density and thermal conductivity of the oceans cold region waters according to their salinity lead to suggest an hypothesis of an oscillating climate between two extreme positions: a maximum of hot temperatures and a…
Atmospheric weather systems are coherent structures consisting of discrete cloud cells forming patterns of rows/streets, mesoscale clusters and spiral bands which maintain their identity for the duration of their appreciable life times in…
A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the…
A generic saddle-node bifurcation is proposed to modelize fast transitions of finite amplitude arising in geophysical (and perhaps other) contexts, when they result from the intrinsic dynamics of the system. The fast transition is…
We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current…
The 27 Myr periodicity in the fossil extinction record has been confirmed in modern data bases dating back 500 Myr, which is twice the time interval of the original analysis from thirty years ago. The surprising regularity of this period…
Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
In many real world chaotic systems, the interest is typically in determining when the system will behave in an extreme manner. Flooding and drought, extreme heatwaves, large earthquakes, and large drops in the stock market are examples of…
With climate change accelerating, the frequency of climate disasters is expected to increase in the decades to come. There is ongoing debate as to how different climatic regions will be affected by such an acceleration. In this paper, we…
The final "giant-impact" phase of terrestrial planet formation is believed to begin with a large number of planetary "embryos" on nearly circular, coplanar orbits. Mutual gravitational interactions gradually excite their eccentricities…